Posted on 03/24/2007 5:21:18 AM PDT by radar101
The capture of British Navy servicemen by Iranian forces is not simply an incident over sea sovereignty in the Persian Gulf. It is a calculated move on behalf of Teheran’s Jihadi chess players to provoke a “projected” counter move by London and its American allies. It is all happening in a regional context, carefully engineered by the Mullahs strategic planners. Here is how: The Iranian regime’s master plan is to wait out the remainder of Tony Blair’s mandate (few more months) and the remaining “real time” of President Bush (till about the end of 2007). For the thinking process in Tehran, based on their Western consultants, believe that Washington and London have reached the end of the rope and will only have till 2008 to do something major to destabilize Ahmedinijad regime. As explained by a notorious propagandist on al Jazeera today the move is precisely to respond to the Anglo-American attempt to “stir trouble” inside Iran. Anis Naccash, a Lebanese intellectual supporter of the Ayatollahs regime, appearing from Tehran few hours ago on the Qatari-based satellite and “explained” that the “US and the UK must understand that Iran is as much at war with these two powers in as much as they support the rise of movements and security instability inside Iran.” He added that Khamenei is clear on the regime’s decision to strike: “we will be at war with you on all levels: secret, diplomatic, military and other.” Pro-Iranian propagandists in the region, via media and online rushed to warn that this movement is part of Iran’s counter-strike against any attempt to destabilize the regime. Two major tracks emerge from these statements, the Iranian military maneuvers and the capture of British Navy personnel.
1) Iran’s domestic front is putting pressure on the Ahmedinijad regime.
From internal reporting, dissidents and anti-Ahmedinijad forces from various social sectors are practically in slow motion eruption against the authorities. Students, women, workers and political activists have been demonstrating and sometimes clashing with the regime’s security apparatus. Western media didn’t report proportionally on these events over the past few weeks. In addition, ethnic minority areas have been witnessing several incidents, including violence against the “Revolutionary Guards,” including in the Arab and Baluch areas. And last but not least, the defection of a major intelligence-military figure early this month to the West was, according to internal sources, a “massive loss” to the regime and a possible first one in a series.
2) The regime “need” an external clash to crush the domestic challenge.
As in many comparable cases worldwide, when an authoritarian regime is faced with severe internal opposition it attempts to deflect the crisis onto the outside world. Hence, Teheran’s all out campaign against the US and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon and the region is in fact a repositioning of Iran’s shield against the expected rising opposition inside the country. Hence the Khomeinist Mullahs plan seem to be projected as follow:
a. Engage in the diplomatic realm, to project a realist approach worldwide, but refrain from offering real results
b. Continue, along with the Syrian regime, in supporting the “Jihadi” Terror operations (including sectarian ones) inside Iraq
c. Widen the propaganda campaign against the US and its allies via a number of PR companies within the West, to portray Iran as “a victim” of an “upcoming war provoked by the US.”
d. Engage in skirmishes in the Gulf (and possibly in other spots) with US and British elements claiming these action as “defensive,” while planned thoroughly ahead of time.
3) The regime plan is to drag its opponents into a trap
Teheran’s master planners intend to drag the “Coalition” into steps in engagement, at the timing of and in the field of control of Iran’s apparatus. Multiple options and scenarios are projected.
a. British military counter measure takes place, supported by the US. Iran’s regime believe that only “limited” action by the allies is possible, according to their analysis of the domestic constraints inside the two powerful democracies.
b. Tehran moves to a second wave of activities, at its own pace, hoping to draw a higher level of classical counter strikes by US and UK forces. The dosing by Iran’s leadership is expected to stretch the game in time, until the departure of Blair and of the Bush Administration by its political opponents inside the country’s institutions and public debate.
In a short conclusion the “War room” in Tehran has engaged itself in an alley of tactical moves it feels it can control. But the Iranian regime, with all its “political chess” expertise, may find itself in a precarious and risky situation. For while it feel that it can control the tactical battlefield in the region and fuel the propaganda pressure inside the West with its Petro-dollars, it may not be able to contain the internal forces in Iran, because of which it has decided to go on offense.
The Ahmedinijad regime wishes to crumble the international consensus to avoid the financial sanctions: that is true. But as important, if not more, it wants to be able to crush the revolt before it pounds the doors to the Mullahs palaces.
Dr Walid Phares is a Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington
ZZZZZZZZZZZZ.
Your plan is sound....and I would volunteer to strap my old bones in an airplane and "hep" out with your plan....but first I think I will build a martini....
Not much if any, and not especially. Thermite is a wonderful thing, and they needed to lighten the bird anyway, so all the documents, computer disks, etc went into the weighted bags, and are now spread out over a good chunk of the bottom of the South China Sea), Our guys never "confessed", nor did the President apologize beyond regretting the poor flying skills of the ChiCom jet jockey. We got the crew and the airplane back, albeit in pieces. Our military attache was given nearly immediate access to the squids on Hainn Island. It was also pretty obvious from the reactions of the local authorities there that the whole thing was *not* pre-planned.
We also got lots of pictures which made it pretty clear who ran into whom.
If anyone looked foolish, and petty, in the end, it was the ChiComs.
Yes, a platoon would fight. Unless it is a deliberate move to sucker the Iranians, which could be so.
There are muslim fanactics. Of course they'd have killed them, cut their heads off, and demanded reparations.
If we EMP their communications, how will they be able to reply? (snicker!)
"Well, the bastards haven't answered us, so let's blow them to kingdom-come!"
Sounds like the USS Pueblo incident where there was no one to back them up.
Thier to busy trying to defund our military! Helping the enemy from within!
This is the kind of Shiite that happens when you send JAG officers into the field to harass your own troops, rather than dealing with the legal niceties, contracts and such, necessary to successfully fight a war far from home.
Only in the short term my friend. The same was said about invading Iraq. Prices went up, then the went down and then up less than the first time, capital markets were barely affected.
How do you know about my private fantasies ????!!!!
President George "Godfather" Bush:
"Today is the Day I will deal with my enemies."
AminaWhackJob
"I'so Ronery Jung Ill"
Hugo "Baba WAWA has the Hots for Me" Chavez
Conehead "We're from FRANCE" Chirac
I bet that there'd be some interesting fishing within that circle in several years.
I would expect to find three headed tuna.
bump
Such an incident happened 1-2 years ago and I am certain that their "Rules of Engagement" call for no heroics regardless of their personal views!!!
The Iranian Petro-dollars are being pumped into the West to fuel the propaganda pressure?
Sheehan?Murtha?Pelosi?NYT?CBS?Who?
It's hard to remember those rules when you're in a stressful situation. I would shoot until I had some stress free time to consult the manual.
I like what Michael Savage said last Friday in regards to the British Navy. He first quoted Sir Winston Churchill who said that the "Royal Navy's greatest traditions were rum, sodomy, and the lash." Savage concluded that this latest episode in the British navy says that someone removed the lash.
Time is ticking for the British to do something.
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