Poll suggests Quebec election a three-way race

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[Reform Canada]

Poll suggests Quebec election a three-way race

Updated Fri. Mar. 16 2007 11:10 PM ET

Canadian Press

MONTREAL -- A new poll suggests the major parties fighting for voter support in the Quebec election were in a tight three-way race this week.

With the March 26 voting day less than two weeks away, the Leger Marketing survey said Liberal support in its March 13-15 poll was at 30 per cent, while the Parti Quebecois and the Action democratique du Quebec were each at 27 per cent.

Once the undecided vote was distributed, the poll put the Liberals at 33 per cent, with the PQ and the ADQ each at 30 per cent.

The poll of 1,000 Quebecers, which was conducted for the French-language TVA television network, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error means that PQ and ADQ support could be as high as 33.1 per cent and that the Liberals could be as low as 29.9 per cent.

The polling period includes the two days that immediately followed this week's televised leaders' debate in which there was no consensus as to who emerged the winner among the Liberals' Jean Charest, the PQ's Andre Boisclair and the ADQ's Mario Dumont.

A March 1-8 CROP poll pegged Liberal support at 33 per cent, PQ backing at 29 per cent and had the ADQ at 26 per cent.

http://tinyurl.com/2ew5dm

[conservative in nyc]

Who are we rooting for in this fight? Doesn't Charest get along with Prime Minister Harper, notwithstanding the Liberal label? But isn't the ADQ more conservative?

[goldstategop]

This is good news. Conservatives in Quebec have 60% percent of the provincial vote. The provincial Liberals are conservatives that have nothing in common with the Liberal Party of Canada, despite the name. It looks like the sovereigntists, the PQ, who are leftists are tied with the ADQ. So we could be headed either for a Liberal or ADQ minority government or more likely, a grand coalition between Quebec's two conservative parties if this result holds out.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[conservative in nyc]

Ping

[Reform Canada]

Yes you are correct. Premier Charest used to be leader of the federal Progressive Conservative when the Conservatives in Canada were split into two Parties (PC and Reform). However Mario Dumont is much more conservative than Charest and now it looks like he has a real chance to win. Even if the PQ wins I believe that the Liberals and ADQ will form a coalition to keep the PQ out. However that remains to be seen as the ADQ backed the Yes side in the 1995 soveignty referendum but I believe things have changed and Dumont is a strong ally of PM Harper. If the PQ can be forced into 3rd place that will completely change the dynamics of Canadians politics as the federal Liberals since the days of Trudeau have used the separtists in Quebec as a wedge to play divide and conquer politics. I believe if the PQ is forced into irrelavancy the Conservatives should be able to replace the Liberals as Canada's natural governing party. Of course time will tell but Prime Minister Harper declaration that "The Quebecois is a nation within a united Canada" did more to unite Canada as a whole than forty years of Liberal pandering. I am on the edge of my seat to see the results of this election.

[llevrok]

French? Three way? Knotted up?

Oooo La La!

[AdrianR]

I would characterize the three Quebec parties as follows:
- PQ - pro-Quebec independence, the leadership of PQ is quite leftist;
- Quebec Liberals - used to be the party of everyone opposed to PQ. Some of them are liberal, some of them are conservative, the uniting idea is Quebec staying as a part of Canada. The present leadership is on the conservative side.
- ADQ - conservative, relative newcomers;
I'd root for a Liberal minority government, supported by ADQ. ADQ is more conservative but I'm not sure if they are ready to govern yet.

[Reform Canada]

The ADQ has been around for quite a while. Mario Dumont I believe formed the Party and has led it since his early twenties. Dumont has been in the Quebec National Assembly for close to 15 years and I believe that he is ready to lead Quebec.

[AdrianR]

I agree Mario Dumont is ready to lead. I'm a bit worried whether the rest of his party is ready. It would be quite a jump from having 5 MPs to the governing party.

[goldstategop]

Agreed. A result like that would strengthen Harper's chances of winning a popular majority in Quebec, which is the key to a House Of Commons majority. The Conservatives have not won a majority in Quebec since Brian Mulroney's day.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

That was an excellent summary.

The Liberals did more than pander to Quebec -- I think that they also stoked the fires of separatism by intruding too much into provincial jurisdiction. The Liberals said they wanted the Quebecois to support federalism -- while they were busy dismantling federalism and increasing the power of the central government.

Federalism is essentially "sovereignty association" -- which is what our Constitution already provides for. (Of course, there are degrees of sovereignty and degrees of association). The Liberals used their spending powers to circumvent the Constitution and intrude into just about every area of provincial responsibility. If Harper fixes the "fiscal imbalance" and simply provides the provinces with the money they need, without strings attached much of the support for separatism will disappear.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

That was an excellent summary.

The Liberals did more than pander to Quebec -- I think that they also stoked the fires of separatism by intruding too much into provincial jurisdiction. The Liberals said they wanted the Quebecois to support federalism -- while they were busy dismantling federalism and increasing the power of the central government.

Federalism is essentially "sovereignty association" -- which is what our Constitution already provides for. (Of course, there are degrees of sovereignty and degrees of association). The Liberals used their spending powers to circumvent the Constitution and intrude into just about every area of provincial responsibility. If Harper fixes the "fiscal imbalance" and simply provides the provinces with the money they need, without strings attached much of the support for separatism will disappear.

[Reform Canada]

Just saw another poll that is evener closer and it puts the ADQ up front

CROP - ADQ 31, Lib 30, PQ 30

It looks like all the momentum is with the ADQ.

[GiveEmDubya]

CROP - ADQ 31, Lib 30, PQ 30

Holy cow. I've been following this off-and-on since the writ drop, and from what I can see, the ADQ has really been coming on strong lately. Last week I would have guessed 20 seats for Dumont, but if these numbers are real, they're looking for at least 30, if not quite a few more.

There's a seat predictor online (Hill & Knowlton?) that, when you put these numbers in -- or even numbers relatively close but more favorable to the PLQ -- has Jean Charest losing his seat in Sherbrooke. THAT would be a huge blow to the Liberals, win or lose.

[goldstategop]

I think so too. The Conservatives have recognized Quebec's unique status within Canada and have promised a new federal relationship where Ottawa lets the provinces do what they want with federal revenue-sharing instead of telling them what to do.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

We can expect a conservative coalition government in Quebec. If the ADQ takes first place, the Liberals will be junior partners in a new government.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[GiveEmDubya]

I just find it interesting that all the major parties very well might come in on election night with basically the same number of seats.

I never would have said this a few weeks ago, but there's a real shot that Mario Dumont could be the premier in a few weeks. Wouldn't be by much, mind you, but you never know. One thing I know for certain is that if the PQ gets the plurality, Boisclair's government won't last long. It'll make Harper's situation look like England's "Long Parliament".

The article cited at the bottom says that Dumont wouldn't coalition, but you can bet that in the case of a PQ minority, the ADQ and PLQ will tag team more often than not against the PQ.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes2007/story/2007/03/16/qc-minority20070316.html

[goldstategop]

They could. I find it interesting the combined right is polling 60% of the vote. That's a landslide and it would turn upside down the notion Quebec is an entrenched leftist bastion. Outside of the big cities, Quebec is principally conservative.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[GiveEmDubya]

More importantly for Canada, it sends a message that separatism is not alive and well in La belle province, even if the PQ gets the most seats. Whoopie, the separatists get 45 seats...but the (divided) federalists get 80.

As far as the federal scene, I think this'll indicate that the BQ stands to shed a handful of seats. With the recent Tory breakthrough in Quebec, it's not necessarily a foregone conclusion that those seats will go Liberal, even with the Quebecois Stephane Dion running the show. This could be the CPC's chance to get even more entrenched.

[fanfan]

Canada ping.

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