Posted on 03/14/2007 10:12:10 PM PDT by doug from upland
LISTEN ONLINE -- COAST TO COAST AM
Well, at least tonight's show isn't about someone who had sex with a ghost. But it should be about as humorous.
Tonight's discussion will be about problems in financial markets. Then Sean David Morton will give his predictions. This is the guy who said 50 million would die in about 1998 in a nuke war between India and Pakistan. He also called for the Trojans over Texas two years ago.
See my post 40 -- he is just scaremongering for publicity.
Morton is not on yet. This guy is on for the first hour and a half.
Interest rates for many are going up because they had low start rate adjustable that are going way up.
Doug, he said 1 in 55 people in Calif. are real estate agents....is this true?
Who is this "financial guy" talking?
My mistake. I'm referring to the current guest discussing the economy.
FairOpinion, yup, point taken.
I have heard a similar statistic quoted elsewhere. The number I heard is that one in 51 in California has a realestate license.
Not sure but that number could be right. I've been in the business for 30 years, specializing in exchanging, consulting, and problem solving. There are a lot of new people in the biz who are clueless. They will be gone soon.
Do you happen to have a historical graph of forclosure rates?
I wonder how the current rates compare.
Sean David Morton will predict that I need to get a life.
You've posted a total of 5,364 threads and 61,414 replies.
I don't have the graph. They are up significantly, however, since last year. When the loan is worth more than the property, people are going to walk away. Typical deals have been for an 80% 1st and a 20% second ---- no money down if the seller paid for closing costs. People will walk.
The thing about adjustabe rate mtgs. in general is that interest rates and payments will go up automatically after a certain period of time....and this is starting to hit now..hence, the most marginal borrowers are getting squeezed..and therefore there will be alot more supply of real estate...prices will drop somewhat...a normal correction that happens in every market...stock market, bond market, real estate market, etc. etc. America will survive and prosper. But 10-20% declines in stocks/real estate is possible.
Typical property tax on a $600,000 house in California would be about $7200. If it takes a 20% hit, the next buyer will pay based on Prop 13= about $5700. If that happens in significant numbers, California takes a huge financial hit in revenue.
I am amazed the property taxes are that high in your region.
I hadn't thought of that particular consequence -- thanks.
I am listening now. His first guest (surprise, ho hum) admitted that he does not like (he hates?) George Bush and the war.
However, I don't see how anyone can say the guest is full of it.
Sub-prime lending has clearly led to problems. Also, the practice of "flipping" just don't work if the prices ain't rising -- even selling the house for more than the buyer paid a year ago is not guaranteed. Makes sense to me.
Also, interest-only loans have been common in parts California and there are lots of ARMs.
There have been lots of boasting about the number of homeowners but were they really homeowners? In the "bad old days" you had to have really solid qualifications to get a real estate loan and, it was said, you looked forward to burning the mortgage and retiring.
I bought in 1984 and am protected by Prop. 13. If I bought my house today, the taxes would be about 4 times what I am paying. It is based on approximately 1.2% of purchase price today.
Thanks for the info, Torie. This is very interesting. I agree, if interest rates were to go up, that would really hit people who are on the edge with their mortgages. I also found something, a table going back to 1950 and the defaults range around 0.5 to 1% historically.
In your graph it show, that there has been a spike up indeed, but it's still much less than 1993-1998, and probably even less %-wise. I don't recall any hysteria about subprime mortgages in 1993-1996, when it went up to much higher to what it is now, in fact there probably weren't that many of those subprime mortgages prior to 1993 in the first place.
Sen. Dodd is going to hold hearings about subprime morgages. They will probably come up with some laws to regulate it, trying to save people from themselves. So there is a few % default, there is 99% NON-default.
Regulating it will just mean that other people in the future won't be able buy a home.
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