California will go Democratic yet again. Take it to the bank.
One reason is that voters here are stupid. Another is that CA media is incredibly bad -- not just liberal media in general, but unbelievably superficial TV news. We don't have a lot of Reagan Democrat types anymore. And, polls show that Californians don't care as much about terrorism as Americans generally.
As for upstate NY, I think part of it is that the region has become an economic basket case. A region that's an economic basket case, unless it's strongly religious, will trend Democratic. In the NYC area, out-of-control immigration has screwed us, as in CA. Rudy is unlikely to carry NY state, let alone the city. However, he will do better than any other Republican could, which should be of some help in winning the nationwide popular vote.
CA elected Arnold.
Rudy appeals to the center and that can make the difference.
Bill and Hillary both came to CA and supported Angelides and it didn't do him any good. I take that as a sign.