That's one scenario, being played out today. There are others. Remember who was the front runner last time around: Dean. Candidacies implode. Stuff happens. It's eary in the race and we have 9 months to make the case for our socon candidate. The solib candidate fails completely on this socon forum and that indicates he splits the base. Every political observer from here to China knows how bad that is except for team rudy. This ain't gonna be a creampuff process.
If Rudy splits the GOP base, then he doesn't win the GOP nomination. That's what primaries are for.
If Hunter unites the GOP base, then he should be polling at least in the mid-30% range in the polls, and arguably over 50%.
Yes, it's early in the race which gives plenty of time for the diehard Hunter supporters to make their case to the readers of this forum. Even assuming they are persuasive, the readers of this forum probably total several hundred thousand people at best.
Hunter's task isn't to win over the hearts of this forum. It is to get the rest of America to even know he exists.