Posted on 03/07/2007 8:21:28 PM PST by Reagan Man
The weathervane of conventional wisdom has shifted radically on Rudy Giuliani's presidential prospects. That's why his current surge in the White House futures market is worth taking both seriously, and with a large grain of salt.
That's because it is unclear whether the former New York mayor's rise to the top of the polls is based on most voters having enough information about him to make the same decision they will when they cast their ballots next year.
There are two key unknowns about Giuliani's numbers:
• Is he leading because most Republican voters don't know about his messy personal history and positions on social issues, or are they aware and they don't care?
• Will his margin over potential Democratic opponents in the general election, based on the perception he is a strong, experienced leader who will stand up to America's enemies, hold up under the scrutiny of a presidential campaign?
We won't know for some time, probably until voters begin having their say in the primaries and caucuses. Of course all candidates have unknowns, but Giuliani's situation is murkier than most because his popularity stems from rhetorically standing up to the terrorists after 9/11. Otherwise there is little public knowledge of his views and background.
Unlike many matters about which good political polls can discern voters' feelings, those questions are probably too difficult to get at until Giuliani has endured the news media gantlet and negative attacks from his opponents.
No independent pollsters are likely to simulate the negative information given voters during a campaign before asking which candidate they support. That would subject the pollsters to charges of loading their questions. Polls that tell respondents information before asking about their preferences are known as "push polls" and are frowned upon in the profession.
Of course, pollsters for the various candidates will take that approach because they don't disclose their results publicly, and they need to know how to advise their clients who pay them big bucks.
Giuliani is the hot presidential candidate, so much so that even conservatives who a few months back gave him no chance for the GOP nomination are reassessing their views.
He is beating Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who that same conventional wisdom had installed as the favorite for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination the day after the 2004 election was over, in virtually all polls. Those same surveys generally show Giuliani with a slight lead over the Democratic aspirants.
Giuliani's strength is his ability to appeal across party lines, running very well among independents and garnering substantial support among Democrats, too.
At one point that was McCain's strength -- and he remains relatively popular among non-Republicans. But as he has accentuated his support for the war in Iraq, opposition to abortion rights and efforts to mend fences with evangelical Christian leaders, his appeal to Democrats and independents has waned.
The conventional wisdom had been until recently that Giuliani's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control would make him a pariah among Republican primary voters, who for the most part, take the opposite view.
But there is substantial personal animosity among many conservative Republicans toward McCain, who over the years has relished his maverick image and occasional willingness to challenge GOP orthodoxy.
A recent national Gallup Poll of Republicans found they overwhelmingly consider Giuliani more likeable, better able to handle a crisis, a stronger leader and a better manager than McCain.
Among Republican voters in Ohio and Florida, the two most important swing states in the country, recent Quinnipiac University polls of GOP voters found Giuliani substantially ahead of McCain. Giuliani led even among social conservatives, despite his moderate views (for a Republican), admitted adultery and multiple marriages.
Although the fight between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has garnered most of the media attention, the biggest surprise of the campaign thus far has been Rudy's rise.
But any judgment on whether Giuliani's chances are as strong as they appear must wait until he has been weathered the heavy fire that comes with being a presidential front-runner.
[Peter A. Brown is the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and a former editorial columnist for the Orlando Sentinel. His e-mail address is peter.brown@quinnipiac.edu.]
Hiding all the guns, just in case......
"Among Republican voters in Ohio and Florida, the two most important swing states in the country, recent Quinnipiac University polls of GOP voters found Giuliani substantially ahead of McCain. Giuliani led even among social conservatives
RUDY PING!!!!
"Is he leading because most Republican voters don't know about his messy personal history and positions on social issues, or are they aware and they don't care?"
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1793173/posts?page=100
"One-third of voters take issue with a presidential candidate who supports gun control or has been married three times like Rudy Giuliani, a new Time magazine poll shows.......30 percent couldn't back a candidate who favors gun control, while another 35 percent have trouble with someone with three marriages. That includes 48 percent of "born-again" white Christians. But the survey also shows 56 percent don't know Giuliani's marital history, 68 percent don't know his stand on gun control (he's been saying it's a state matter), and nearly 80 percent don't accurately know where he is on abortion rights (he favors it)....Giuliani is partly an unknown quantity nationally."
Here's an idea:
Take one of the 'rudy surging' polls
See how many of those rudy supporters know rudy's position on gun control, roe v wade, and illegal immigration. Then see how many of those people know who got kicked off of american idol last week.
I'd put money that more people will know who got knocked off american idol than know rudy's positions on the issues.
Dick Morris was on H&C today.
He said, when he gave a speech in front of Republicans he asked those who support Rudy to stand up. Many did.
Then he told them about Rudy's marriages, positions on abortion and homosexuals and asked those who won't support him because of that to sit down.
ALMOST NOBODY SAT DOWN.
woohoo!!!!
That seals it. Rudy is the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ himself!!!
Why don't you just call your ping list what it is, the "HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT PING LIST"
Rudy is going to steal blue states from the Democrats while maintaining the red ones.
This is why the GOP will win the White House and likely both houses of Congress in 08.
Yep.
"Why don't you just call your ping list what it is, the "HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT PING LIST""
I don't think your rhetoric is extreme enough. Why don't you suggest it be called the "osama bin laden" for president ping list, because if someone doesn't support the most liberal republican candidate for president, they must want the terrorists to take over America.
Come on, you know you want to.
......Morris also said that party purity it being replaced with party pragmatism....that makes sense to me after all the corrupt conservatives in the last few years....maybe it was Frank Luntz who said it.....
About the same number who know McKook's positions, or that he dumped his first wife after she was crippled in a car accident, or that his current wife stole narcotics from a medical charity to support her addiction.
Then see how many of those people know who got kicked off of american idol last week.
Don't waste your time. You know the answer.
Oops. That should say "about the same percentage of the public..."
That Bald Faced RED... That's the same color as the lipstick yer tryin ta stick on that pig's lips!!! Ha Ha Ha!!!
You on the other hand, you do support liberals for elective office. First you supported A.Schwarzy in 2003 and 2006, and he turned out to be an extremely liberal Governor for California. Now you're supporting the liberal Rudy Giuliani for POTUS. Another lifelong liberal.
Conservatives of conscience have worked hard for many years and many decades to advance conservatism within the Republican Party. We aren't about to throw everything away so we can help you liberals elect Rudy to office. That is insanity. Not gonna happen.
If you want to elect Rudy as the next GOP nominee, you'll have to do it without help from conservatives.
Every candidate we have so far is tough on terror. All Rudy has going for him is the 911 performance. Was he sincere? Yes. was he steadfast? yes. Did he unite NY and America at a time of tribulation? yes.
But he stinks on lots of other stuff.
There are a lot of folks here that think walking away from principal is what could allow a Dem to get in the whitehouse. In fact, walking away from principal is just what has hillarys numbers floundering. Its not that Rudy is more popular
Hillary is leading the Dem candidates in every single poll.
This is why some conservatives are settling for Rudy from New York:
"I don't have to believe in everything you say you believe in. I just want to know for certain that you believe it."
We're running out of (popular) politicians that provide even that. They say the right things, but they don't believe it, and they prove they never meant it when they get into power. The appeal of Rudy is that he actually believes what he says. Imagine that.
And they hate her
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