Unless some southern or western conservative decides to run a third party campaign.
Then how many electoral votes will Rudy get?
On the contrary, I believe all the Upper South states (AR, TN, VA, and NC) and the Border states (WV, KY, and MO) will be up for grabs. VA and NC are drifting toward the left due to the spillover from the states to the north and east. These Yankees are not the old line white Catholic blue collar workers who abound in PA, NJ, and CT and who should strongly support Giuliani. They are metrosexual, irreligious, and postgraduate types who are decidedly liberal. Indeed, Hillary will have to prove she is liberal enough for these people. NC may still be a GOP victory unless Obama is on the Democratic ticket. 21.6% of the state's population is black. Stronger black turnout due to Obama's presence could cause a rare Democratic win in the Tar Heel State.
Evangelical and gun owner support will naturally drop with Giuliani running, even if third parties are restricted to the de minimis level of the Libertarian Party and the Constitution Party. The loss of these votes will put WV, MO, TN, AR, and even KY at risk. As with NC, Obama running as President or VP could help in TN and AR (both 16% black) and MO (11% black). Don't forget that the Harold Ford political machine in Memphis and Democratic machines in Kansas City and St. Louis are notorious for ballot box stuffing.
The Giuliani forces place too much stake in fear of Hillary as a motivating factor. Bob Dole received very few more votes in 1996 (about 100,000) than the elder Bush did in 1992 despite four years of Clinton sleaze and socialistic initatives.
The Upper South and the Border states will by no means be as safely GOP as they were in 2000 and 2004 with a Giuliani run. The New Yorker needs to look to his native Northeast and California to win the Presidency.
410.