[Oztrich Boy]

So, when you add all of that together, it is very likely that by 2010 the Varyag will indeed by operational and training with the PLAN to develop carrier operational tactics.

True, but it's clear that the original article was not taliking about the Varyag , but a locally built modification of the Gorschkov design.

[Jeff Head]

Exactly...and the Russians have been shopping that type of thing around. The Indians are actually having the Russians refit the Admrial Gorschkov itself to a ski-jump carrier for them to be completed in the 2010 time frame as well.

But I believe it is clear at this point, short of the Chinese hiding a massive carrier construction project someplace (very doubrtful), that the 1st Chinese carrier will be the Varyag.

My guess is that it will be 2014 or later before the 1st indigenous Chinese carrier comes out...and then we may see two built at once. The PLAN has been doing a lot of that in the last few years, building two at a time for a new class.