The North Korea Climbdown

WSJ ^ | 3/5/07 | John Bolton

[dervish]

Washington's most important person--the Anonymous Senior Official ("ASO")--was busy last week, briefing reporters on North Korea's uranium enrichment program.

The North's pursuit of nuclear weapons through uranium enrichment, an alternative to reprocessing plutonium from spent fuel at the Yongbyon reactor, constituted both a material breach of the 1994 Agreed Framework and an enormous challenge to the hope that it could ever be negotiated out of pursuing nuclear weapons. Based, however, on one public comment and much work by Mr./Ms. ASO, the media last week set about deconstructing a critical strategic concern underlying Bush administration Korea policy. According to their breathless reporting, yet another threat to America was disappearing, revealed as simply more intelligence hype from an administration that apparently did little else in its first term.

'snip'

In any arms-control negotiation, the need for verification is directly correlated to the propensity of the other side to lie, cheat and conceal its undesirable activities. In the present case, the greater the likelihood that North Korea will make commitments it has absolutely no intention of following, the more intrusive and pervasive should be the verification mechanism we insist on.

'snip'

That's why Mr./Ms. ASO was busy, laying the foundation to argue that further deals with North Korea do not require much, if any, verification beyond what little the International Atomic Energy Agency can provide. If we continue this approach, what is already a bad deal will become a dangerous deal, whether we make it with North Korea directly or in the six-party talks...

[Thud]

This looks more like something intended to be only temporary, to get the Chinese to deny air passage for flights from NK to Iran carrying PU-239 and/or U-235 for a few months. While we take out another of NK's customers.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #2

Having seen a few temporary measures turning into virtual status quo in this administration, I will wait until I get the evidence to disprove my sketicism.

I would not mind being wrong. However, for now, I would based my judgement on what I can see or hear.

[snowsislander]

If we continue this approach, what is already a bad deal will become a dangerous deal, whether we make it with North Korea directly or in the six-party talks...

I agree with Ambassador Bolton. This would be a dangerous path to take.