Posted on 03/04/2007 2:35:23 PM PST by shrinkermd
GBP/JPY moved -400+ pips in aboout an hour this evening!!!!
Dollar down against Yen but not nearly as much GPB down against the dollar.
Hang Seng down about 3% but Shanghai up about .5%.
I'm not some high volume day trader. Its pretty hard considering how busy I am with my full time job.
Most of the analysis tools I use, I get through my online broker, Scottrade. I've learned how to read and work with candlestick charts. While I like to keep my eyes on the charts, I tend to invest in companies I know about (I work in technology and finance) so I gravitate to those. If I see a stock that get my initial interest, I start monitoring it and reading up everything I can about what drives its business and stock price movement.
There are stocks I treat as a trade (short term) or longterm investments.
Back in October, I had my radar on Coach as a trade stock, the women's luxury retailer. They appeared primed for a monster holiday shopping season. So I built up a position at a cost average of $37. I was looking for 50 by christmas given current interest in the stock. It's been getting nothing but positive press about it and the major hedge and mutual funds are all over it.
While I didn't get $50 by Christmas, given its upward momentum, I stuck with it, and it hit $50 in Febuary where I sold half my position, and decided to let the rest ride.
It got knocked down to 46 with what happened last week, but I still see lots of strength in the stock, so I'm going to continue to hold and will buy more if it goes below 45.
Another stock I'm betting big on in 2007 is Marvell (MRVL), the semiconductor chip maker. The stock as been held down with the company being investigated for options backdating, but I think the price drop is a hiccup, and they are primed for a major bounce upward once its all figured out. They make outstanding products that you see in many of the most cutting edge wireless devices. Their chips have a very good chance of being in the new Apple cellphone. Stock is around $20 a share and I have a price target on it for $30 this year. Their latest earnings report was impressive.
My portfolio is quite similar at the moment. However it looks like time to start thinking about mutual funds that short the indexes.
Around what age are you?
So if the majority of your portfolio is cash, you have this in a savings account getting about 5% or buried in some coffee can in the backyard?
You could put some of that cash in tax free muni's. It might offset some of the taxes from any capital gains or what you are forced to payout from your retirement accounts.
If your looking for some mutual funds to short the indexes. Here is some ideas.
http://bearmarketcentral.com/mutualfunds.htm
"In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index fell for a fifth day, tumbling 575.68 points, or 3.34 percent, to 16,642.25 points, dragged down by major exporters such as Canon Inc., Sony Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp., whose earnings are eroded by a stronger yen. Since reaching a nearly seven-year high last Monday, the Nikkei index has slid 8.64 percent.
Markets in Hong Kong, Australia, the Philippines, India and South Korea all fell sharply Monday, continuing their declines from last week, when a 9 percent plunge in Chinese stocks on Tuesday triggered a sell-off on Wall Street and other global markets.
European markets also opened lower Monday, with Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 down 1.5 percent in early trading, France's CAC 40 sliding 1.8 percent and Germany's DAX sinking 2.1 percent.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index tumbled 4 percent to its lowest since mid-December. Australia's stock market -- which had hit a record last month -- fell for a fifth day, sinking 2.3 percent.
South Korea's benchmark index dropped 2.7 percent, Philippine stocks plunged 4.5 percent, and Indian stocks were down nearly 4 percent.
Investors still seemed risk-averse after the previous week's turmoil.
Sorry I did not make myself clearer. Normally I am almost fully invested but at the moment I am not as optimistic as most about the direction of the market. Even though this is the year before an election when the market typically does very well. Am in sort of a wait and see period and know I will have to make a decision at some point because like you point out, settling for 5% is nuts. (I saw Mark Cuban advocate exactly this on CNBC the other day!).
I did switch a lot of the nonretirement portfolio to tax free muni mutual funds recently (I havent yet shaken my bad habit of referring to everything with a fixed share value of a buck as cash).
That list of bear funds is great, thanks so much. Previously I have used two of the Profunds and one of the Rydex. Didn't know about some of the others and will start looking in to them.
Sorry I did not make myself clearer. Normally I am almost fully invested but at the moment I am not as optimistic as most about the direction of the market. Even though this is the year before an election when the market typically does very well. Am in sort of a wait and see period and know I will have to make a decision at some point because like you point out, settling for 5% is nuts. (I saw Mark Cuban advocate exactly this on CNBC the other day!).
I did switch a lot of the nonretirement portfolio to tax free muni mutual funds recently (I havent yet shaken my bad habit of referring to everything with a fixed share value of a buck as cash).
That list of bear funds is great, thanks so much. Previously I have used two of the Profunds and one of the Rydex. Didn't know about some of the others and will start looking in to them.
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