"I'm somewhat skeptical that China would attack immediately. But they're likely to move up the date and refine the contingencies."
Move it up is the key word. The longer Taiwan waits, the stronger China gets.
"How many well connected sorts did you have long dialogues with?"
I know a number of Taiwanese expat business types. I also pay very close attention to Pac Rim news.
I had a connection with lots of Central Committee . . . experience.
Other close friends saw many high ranking officials in a professional capacity routinely.
And I had other contacts as well.
I'm also not a bad psychologist and not a bad sociologist.
There is SOME chance China will play this cool but I do not expect it to appear that way on the surface.
And I also expect them to ramp up their military options.
There is also the puppet masters. They may not give China the green light for war at this time. Though some prophetic voices have been somewhat vocal about this year being a very dangerous one on that score.
But China on it's own--this is enough to send them into epileptic fits--violent ones.