How do you figure?
I think he greatly underestimates Beijing's pride. The ruling leaders are plenty arrogant. They would condemn to death 800,000,000 people for pride reasons alone.
I've asked folks on both sides of the straight repeatedly whether they think Beijing will attack.
The better connected the more they say--not unless Taiwan declares Independence.
I expect a very harsh response from Beijing within 24-48 hours. I expect they will also begin flexing military personnel and equipment--moving it around overtly, staging supposedly dry runs etc.
This is stupidly a big issue to Beijing.
It's beyond arrogance. It's a credibility issue. The heads of the CCP have been adamant for decades on this issue. If they bend now, it will call into question everything else. Most Americans can't appreciate what that means to the Chinese, but I'll back you on this. Beijing's pride and emontional investment in this issue is far beyond what most people realize. They may wind up doing something very stupid over it.
The better connected the more they say--not unless Taiwan declares Independence.
The problem is also that within the Chinese government are more moderate or more hardline factions, reformers and generals and the like, who have had to make certain agreements over portfolios and power structures over the years. Many of them rest on agreements and common understandings over the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan taking this action will allow hardliners within the government the ability to cash in on a lot of these underlying agreements, and force moderate elements to take a backseat. I realize this is cryptic, but I think you know what I'm talking about.
I expect a very harsh response from Beijing within 24-48 hours.
I would too, I just wonder what it will be. Beyond the 24-48, this may cause a tectonic shift underneath the surface of the Chinese government, and the effects may not be apparent right away. Within a few weeks or months, the PRC's government may be considerably different.
"I expect a very harsh response from Beijing within 24-48 hours. I expect they will also begin flexing military personnel and equipment--moving it around overtly, staging supposedly dry runs etc. "
And monkeywrench the olympics and trade?
Not likely.
China is pretending to be peaceful lately. Either they do nothing, or they end up looking like the same old baddies. Taiwan can't lose, China won't attack.