The numbers just aren't there for him, although I hope it changes.
I think one of the mistakes we make is in assuming that all independents will vote for a liberal.
Fred will attract voters from different ideaologies- and he’ll do it without selling out. Part of his strength comes from people sensing that he actually believes what he says, that he’s not double-dealing. That’s pretty compelling stuff- particularly in the age of sound-bites and advisors telling the candidate what to think. Fred already knows what he thinks...and he knows how to express it in ways that make sense to highly intelligent thinkers, and to ordinary folks like me.
There are a great many political advisors sitting around desks with calculators, looking at poll numbers, campaign coffers and the like...and making predictions based on what they learn from playing with those numbers.
They neglect one piece of data- because it never occurs to them. What would happen if a candidate decided to have a genuine conversation with America? What we seem to be watching is the beginning of Fred teaching Civics 101.
I believe if this continues, the numbers you refer to will change. In fact, I’d bet on it..