Posted on 02/26/2007 3:44:39 PM PST by areafiftyone
Released: February 26, 2007
Hillary Holds On; Giuliani Expands Lead in National Primary Tests
Obama advances, but McCain fades in partisan contests; Obama, Giuliani do best in general election match-ups
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton clings to a shrinking lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in a national test of Democratic primary voter preference, while Republican Rudy Giuliani is expanding his edge over John McCain, the maverick senator from Arizona, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.
The survey was the first since last week’s very public spat between the Clinton and Obama campaigns over Hollywood fund–raising and the conduct of the first Clinton administration.
The telephone survey, which asked Democrats, Republicans, and non–aligned voters in which primary or caucus they planned to vote next year, was conducted Feb. 22–24, 2007, and included 1,078 likely voters (397 Republicans - MOE: +/- 5.0 percentage points, 439 Democrats - MOE: +/- 4.8 percentage points). The survey's overall margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points.
Among those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus for President, Clinton leads with 33% support, up 4% from our last telephone survey in early January. However, Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks, moving from 14% support to 25% backing. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edward is a distant third, winning 12% support. One in five said they were undecided about which Democratic candidate to support.
|
Democrats |
Republicans |
|
Clinton 33% |
Giuliani 29% |
|
Obama 25% |
McCain 20% |
|
Edwards 12% |
Romney 9% |
|
Richardson 5% |
Rice 7% |
|
Biden 2% |
Gingrich 7% |
|
Clark 1% |
Brownback 4% |
|
Someone else 3% |
Tancredo 1% |
|
Not sure 20% |
Hunter 1% |
|
|
Someone else 4% |
|
|
Not sure 19% |
On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has extended his lead over McCain, leading 29% to 20% in our latest polling. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who had a successful career in business before entering politics, placed a distant third on the GOP side of the fence. Nearly one in five Republican primary or caucus participants (19%) said they were unsure about whom to support.
Giuliani led McCain in our early January survey, 21% to 17%.
In the Democratic race, Clinton wins solid support among older voters, while Obama has the edge among younger counterparts. Clinton holds a 31% to 24% edge among white Democratic voters, while Obama leads among African–Americans, 36% to 27%. Progressives gave the nod to Obama, while moderates favored Clinton. The two were deadlocked at 30% support among male Democratic voters, but Clinton led among women, 34% to 22%.
In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton’s support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters – 54% – said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary or caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed. While his overall support lags, Edwards appears to have strong–minded backers: just 28% said they are likely to jump from the Edwards ship over the course of the next year.
Republican Giuliani is favored in nearly every age bracket, the Zogby telephone survey shows. He leads in all groups. McCain comes close only among those age 50–64, where the former New York mayor’s lead narrows to a 24% to 21% edge. More than one in four in that specific age group said they were yet undecided whom to support.
Among those Republican voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” Romney wins 23%, compared to 22% for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The much–ballyhooed very conservative vote is split even more among second–tier candidates, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice winning 13% support and Sen. Sam Brownback winning 9%. Giuliani (4%) and McCain (3%) failed to win more than token support among this demographic.
General Election Match–Ups Show Obama Strength
The Zogby International survey also tested several combinations of possible 2008 presidential general election match–ups, pairing the top three candidates from each party:
|
Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40% |
Giuliani 40%, Obama 46% |
Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40% |
|
McCain 47%, Clinton 39% |
McCain 40%, Obama 44% |
McCain 47%, Edwards 38% |
|
Romney 35%, Clinton 45% |
Romney 29%, Obama 51% |
Romney 32%, Edwards 47% |
While 32% gave Bush positive marks for his overall job performance, 68% gave him negative ratings. Older Americans were more likely to give him slightly better ratings than younger counterparts, the survey shows. While 61% of Republicans gave him positive marks, just 9% of Democrats and 26% of self–described independents awarded the President a positive job approval rating.
Overall, just 23% support the President’s handling of the war in Iraq, while 35% said the Iraq war has been worth the loss of American lives.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1172
(2/26/2007)
(((((RUDY PING)))))
The good news keeps on coming. And I read the other day that Republicans tends to stick with their front runner.
You have to admire the way Rudy Giuliani handles himself. The latest evidence is this interview with Hugh Hewitt. It's all there -- the willingness to laugh at himself, the eagerness to share credit and throw in the kind word, the recognition of human imperfection, the respect for the views of others, and the ability (enhanced by all of the above) to talk up his accomplishments and leadership skills without appearing unduly immodest.
He's good.
JOHN adds: I heard part of Hugh's interview while driving home tonight. Rudy is indeed very, very good. I was listening while he described how he helped crush the Mafia in the 1980s. I wonder how many voters know that story; not many, I'd guess. People who wonder how Giuliani can appeal to conservatives haven't seen him in action.
But Don't fret, this poll didn't pair him against Duncan Hunter. Just wait, the tide will change.
Looks good Peach!! He certainly looks happy, lol.
Thanks for that graphic, potlatch! I'm happy too!
Numbers bookmarked.
"Among those Republican voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” Romney wins 23%, compared to 22% for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich."
"Obama be the man! According to this poll, he wins the general in all parings."
This is the first poll to show anything remotely like that- probably a mistake and almost certainly an aberration.
Rush said Obama's father was a drunk and a bigot, not that there's anything wrong with that.
He will be remembered as one of the "side shows" in this campaign.
What really needs to be done is for all of us to get into this thing before the primaries where we can still make choices among the crops of candidates that range from conservative....all the way to being "closet liberal".
Gotta' weed 'em out now before we get stuck with someone we don't want, at the top of the ticket.
The time is now. After that, I'm voting for the Republican nominee, whoever it is....but I don't want him to think my vote is in his pocket right now and he can do as he pleases.
Obama's strength may be overstated by this poll. I don't believe I've seen a poll that showed Obama outpolling Edwards.
Wow! I didn't know that.
I think it might be overstated too. Obama will not get the Black vote that will hurt him BIG TIME when it comes down to voting. Hillary will win the black vote. Edwards makes too many mistakes.
Good!!
I just watched the left wing documentary last night , "Guiliani Time", it was set to chilling scary music, emphasizing how scary and right-wing he is, police state, "mean" to welfare recipients because he put them to work, blah blah blah. . .
It was supposed to turn me off Guiliani but when they showed the clips of him talking, his reason and manner really reminded me of Cheney, who'd be my first choice for President.
I'm interested in Guiliani now. The documentary had the opposite effect as intended. . .
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