I think we're basically on the same page, analytically. I have many contacts (and in fact friends) from Persia, so I know something about the mind set there. My concern, and where I think I differ with you, is that I think that there is a madman in charge in Iran (if not a whole cadre of them) and I don't have any faith in the institutions in that country being able to restrain the crazy ideas.
Think Chancellor Hitler in 1933. Most sane people didn't believe he could set in motion the forces that he did. The Germans were too smart, too modern, too much like us, too sane. We learned to our sorrow that no people are above that type of lunacy. Now remember that the basic ethos of the current Iranian government is from around 700 AD.
My own opinion is that we have come all too close to that same insanity ourselves more than once, most recently with Nazi Pelosi (for different reasons). Fortunately she's not in complete control here.