The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2007 Update

The rRsing Sea Dragon in Asia Web Site ^ | 24 February 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

Agreed on both counts...great projects out there, and the need for larger fleets.

[Jeff Head]

No doubt that there are...but I personally believe that you can also reach a point in both numbers of vessels and your ability to produce more if need be, where you skate on thin ice.

I believe we are getting close to that point, even given our build schedule. I just believe 313 ships (or whatever the latest target is), is too small a number given the current build rate and the growth rate of the Chinese.

...and we are having to build back up to get to that number.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Excellent! Thanks for the link.

America has been through a lot just in my lifetime. A world war, "wars of liberation" around the Globe, attempts to start civil war / revolution here, recession, stagnation, inflation, stagflation, the loss of one of our great traditional political parties to the 1960s New Left Rats, actual traitors at the highest level of government.. lots more.

We can easily (more or less) handle the cut off of trade with Red China, they would be destroyed.

[Non-Sequitur]

We need to begin a massive naval construction program in the next few years if we want to have any chance of facing the Chinese on an equal footing.

Dream on, for several reasons. One, no money. Iraq is sucking up every spare dollar the military has and ever additional dollar they can pry out of Congress. Major weapons platforms like the P-7 and the LCS are being cut back or cancelled. Carriers and amphibious ships are being deployed on a much faster schedule, cutting back on maintenance time. Which isn't that big an issue short term since maintenance dollars are being directed towards Iraq anyway. So not only do you not have the money for new ships, you're wearing out the ones you have at a greater rate. Two, it's impossible. You have two sources for all your surface ships destroyer sized or larger, one source for carriers, two sources for nuclear submarines. They don't have the manpower or the space for any more work than they have now. So increasing your output isn't practical. If we're going to bring additional platforms to bear on China then we're stuck with what we have. The only option is to shift units from the Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific so they're closer.

[Jeff Head]

The biggest difference right now between our naval building program and the chinese can be characterized by two simple things:

1) They have the capacity right now to build new classes at multiple shipyards simultaneously, putting out 2 and 4 new vessels in each class and can work on eight to ten new classes at a time in this fashion. We have limited ourselves to very few active shipyards where producing one or two new vessels of a particular class a year is stretching us...and then working on only two-three classes at a time.

2) They continue building and refining what they have...we are decommissioning vessels many other nations would love to have, with 10-15 years service life left on them...and then not keeping them available at all in the event of a crisis...but instead, sinking them.

Here's a graphical representation:

PLAN Naval Buildup (two to four ships at a time) vs. US Naval buildup (sinking our own).

One day, it may well catch up with us and it will be ugly. My Dad, a World War II Navy combat vet of the PTO, told me many times before he passed away in 2004 that it reminded him of the pre-World War II days.

[Eastbound]

Thanks for the ping, Jeff!

Best -- Dave

[philetus]

Nothing to worry about Jeff. They are just building all the WAR ships because they needed something for everybody to do.
They are our bestest, sweetest allies.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Wow! The Chi-Coms started with small backyard steel furnaces in every commune and urban neighbourhood making steel out of scrap metal (pots and pans and such) and fueled by denuded trees and wood taken from the doors and furniture of peasants' houses!

In only a few years they developed that into the technology to build modern ships.. wow!

Wot?

Billions and billions of dollars from western FDI? Western intellectual property? Western technology? Western equipment? "Free traders?" DNC? DNC.. what's that?

[jim macomber]

Fascinating stuff, Jeff. I can't watch the news coming out of China, Iran, and elsewhere without thinking of the prescience and accuracy of your Dragon's Fury novels.

[Jeff Head]

It is amazing, phenominal, what we are doing in the face of China's rise to power...both militarily and economically. Ands one day, it is going to come back to haunt us.

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome my friend. GOd's best and His blessings to you and yours.

As I continue to write about and research this issue of China's military rise and expansion, I can always here my dear late father's words, a few months before he died, as he reviewed my material. That combat naval officer from World War II, a veteran of the PTO, would simply remind me how what we are seeing now, reminded him so much of what he saw in the late 1930s as Germany and Japan rose to power...particularly their massive shipbuilding efforts.

[Jeff Head]

Bush has done the right thing in taking the war to the Islamic radicals. But far too many in the administration and left over from appointments during the Clinton years take the Chinese lightly and view them as our working partners. I believe we are missing the boat and that the larger, long term threat comes from China. In fact, I personally believe that they have and continue to abett the enemies we are fighting in the middle east...testing us, occupying us while they go about their own buildup.

[Jeff Head]

Thanks Jim, to me, most of this stuff is as plain as the nose on our faces. Hope all is well with you and yours and that your own well published works and writings continue to prosper. God's speed!

[thinking]

Every time you buy something from the WallMart, you supply components for the new fleet

[Jeff Head]

Sadly, the economic issue has become MUCH more widespread than just Walmart...and that's just the consumer economic side of it.

[sasportas]

Every time you buy something from the WallMart, you supply components for the new fleet.

Good grief! You are right, I won't be buying from Wallmart...now, if I can just convince my wife.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...you're hard earned dollars at work.

[miliantnutcase]

That's why the fleets still carry Tico cruisers with them. Imo, these things should not be replaced with burks.

[khnyny]

Your vanity article is excellent.

[Jeff Head]

Usually a CSG will embark with one tico and two burkes. The latest flight Burkes are extremely good at AAW, very close to the Ticos. But they have no Harpoons for long range ASuW work. They are however capable of carrying two SeaHawks now, like the Ticos.