The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2007 Update

The rRsing Sea Dragon in Asia Web Site ^ | 24 February 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

However, having said that, in a one on one engagement, the PLAN sovs, the new 52B and 52C destroyers are going to be a serious threat. No Burke captain would take them lightly.

[hosepipe]

Wonder how many of these craft one Attack sub could sink in one well planned night.. followed by one F-22 at dawn to mop up any leftovers and photograph the remains..

Could be massive waste of excess American bucks..
Is that a good thing wasting capitalist capital?.. d;-)

[Alamo-Girl]

Buump!

[Jeff Head]

I do ont know. If the action were within the more confined waters of the china Sea where the PLAN diesel/electrics ar elocated and where their ASW capabilities are stronger...I would not say it would be so easy.

At this point, on the high seas, our ADCAP LA class boats, the Virginias and particularly the Sea Wolfs would raise cain with them for sure.

...and, if it were on the high seas, unless within range of Okinawa, make it an F-16 superhornet doing the mom-up and photography.

Just the same, as they produce more and more modern warships and subs, we would be foolish to underestimate them...particularly as we continue to dwaddle right at or under three hundred ships in our navy.

[hosepipe]

Actually ANY Navy even ours seems to be at immense risk with modern military tools.. especially air tools.. Serious stealth Predator(s) would/should be unerving to any Navy.. If it/they carried internally held ship to ships that were also stealth..

Big navys except for politics and logistics might be a WWII concept.. Could be China is working on WWII Strategy.. Moving a huge Army or Navy with satellites watching now would not be easy..

[WilliamofCarmichael]

As the PLA modernizes hundreds of thousands in the land forces are being let go. An estimated one-and-a-half-million so far.

They join the estimated 100 million to 200 million in the "floating population" of unemployed plus millions more of acknowledged people in the unemployment line.

The rural population estimated at 800 million is more restless than ever as corruption dominates and income disparity grows. Pollution is killing hundreds of thousands every year.

Rural residents are facing eviction as the "dam happy" Chinese build more and bigger. Rural residents head to the cities only to be treated with disfavor. Industrial deaths occur at a rate of more than 100,000 each year.

There are nearly 100,000 clashes between citizens and authorities each year. A radio report (here in the U.S.) the other day stated that a PLA warehouse was raided and all contents of weapons, etc. were carried off.

The "iron rice bowl" is no more. Tens of millions more face lay-offs from the thousands of worthless government owned enterprises that are a huge drain on resources just to keep the millions "employed."

New Democrat Third Way progressives and mainline Republican "free traders" want to raise everyone's boat. China has some really big boats and it's our progressives and "free traders" that are keeping them afloat.

I know why the progressives are doing it: ideology; and Lenin knew why the Republican "free traders" are doing it: they are useful idiots.

[sasportas]

You must be a zoomie. Who was it? Air Force General Spaatz that said, "who needs a Navy?" The zoomies are a conceited bunch. On the need for a Navy, Spaatz has been proven wrong time and time again.

[hosepipe]

I'm ex-Navy.. Squid..

[Stonewall Jackson]

When those Chinese decide to build a fleet, they sure don't mess around.

From this update, it looks like they will have a decent start on a blue-water navy by 2009-10 and if they continue on this production rate, they will have a massive fleet by 2015-16.

The continuing buildup of their fleet, the modernization of their army and air force, and their new ability to neutralize satellites from the ground could combine into making China a very serious threat in the next decade.

I sometimes feel like Billy Mitchell, who, in 1924, knew deep down in his gut that the Japanese were going to attack the US. The Chinese don't need this large of a fleet to capture Taiwan (they have enough fifth-columists on Taiwan and so many missiles aimed at the island that they will likely knock out half to two-thirds of its defenses before the first Chinese transport leaves port); the Russian Pacific Fleet is a pathetic shadow of its former self; none of the Southeast Asian nations have naval forces that can begin to stand up against the Chinese India might be considered a moderate threat against the Chinese, but the Indian Navy is mostly defensive and lacks the ability to take the fight to the Chinese territorial waters; Japan, too, might be considered a threat, but most of their surface fleet consists of destroyers and frigates that are primarily defensive in nature, their submarines might be a threat against China, but the PLAN already has a fairly effective ASW program in place. Once you take all of these countries out of the equation, the only other logical opponent that the Chinese might he building up their forces to face is the United States.

We need to begin a massive naval construction program in the next few years if we want to have any chance of facing the Chinese on an equal footing. Otherwise we will end up like we were in 1941-42, fighting a defensive war while our shipyards scramble to produce the ships we need to take the fight to the enemy. Only this time, the enemy will have a capability of hitting us on our own soil, using sub-launched cruise missiles to hit our shipyards and repair facilities.

Beijing has studied the history of the United States and they know us almost as well as we know ourselves. They know our strengths (our vast natural resources and our massive industrial capabilities) and they know our weaknesses (our inability to truly see the evil in some men and our short tolerance for a costly war). They know that if they go to war with the United States, it will be a fight to the finish, with no quarter asked and none given. The frightening truth of the matter is that they appear to have weighed all of these risks and have decided to continue with their plans.

[tarheelswamprat]

Speaking for those on the other thread

"it's only a model"

Yes, but these models really do represent a threat, unlike those "global-warming models" our media keeps touting. /grin

[Jeff Head]

Well, I agreew with most all of what you have said. But, the Japanese Navy (their Japanese Maritime self Defense force) is very credible and represents the second strongest destroyer navy in the world, second only to the US. They are a serious threat to the PLAN. South Korea also has a very potent and modern force, smaller than the Japanese, but very modern and capable...if they have the will to use it.

My concern is that we are slowing our build rate and that we have only a couple or three yards that can build our major combatants (carriers, destroyers, amphibs, etc.).

We have decent designs coming up on the ways...but our ability to produce them quickly is seriously eroded...they yards simply do not exist...and our ability to produce them at all is jeopardized.

Anyhow, this is why I have that site, and also why I wrote my:

Dragon's Fury Series of Books.

If you are interested, the entire series is available to all Freepers as a free download in a professionaly done Adobe eBook --> HERE.

[Jeff Head]

Oztrich Boy doesn't tag sarcasm, he says so right on his FR page...and I believe he was being that way. hehehe.

[tarheelswamprat]

Yes, I knew it was in fun! The underlying reality is serious, though, so thanks for the timely update.

[Stonewall Jackson]

I agree that the Japanese and South Koreans do have the ability to cause the Chinese Navy significant damage, but I'm not sure if they have the political will to do so until it is too late.

Most of the destroyers and frigates in the Japanese MSDF carry the Harpoon or Type 88/90 ASMs, the Japanese government refused to allow the deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles on any of their warships. Since the effective range of the Harpoons and Type 88/90's is approximately the same as most missiles deployed by the Chinese (but shorter than the range of the 9M80E extended-range version of the SS-N-22 Sunburn that the Chinese bought for their Sovremennyy destroyers), this would put the Japanese warships in harm's way.

Still, it is interesting to wonder how the Japanese would fare in a modern fight against the Chinese. I might have to sit down and write that one out.

Thanks for the discussion. Good night.

[grey_whiskers]

Both of you might be interested in my recent vanity on China.

Cheers!

[Jeff Head]

You are welcome.

You know that the anti-ship version of the Tomahawk was pulled long ago from our combatants. They are all Land Attack missiles now. The latest Burkes do not even carry Harpoons.

At least we still have the carriers and their long "reach" with the air wings.

[Stonewall Jackson]

You have got to be kidding!!!

[RunningWolf]

Jeff I understand what you are saying.

However, there could be several forward looking apparent/not apparent considerations that affect what we see at the the present.

[Dundee]

There are some interesting projects (both Australian and joint Aus/US) going on down here which should greatly improve our naval capabilities. Nulka, Mk-48 CBASS, and CEAMOUNT/CEAFAR are just the tip of the ice burg.

That said, both the RAN and the USN need to double the size of their fleets.

[Jeff Head]

Nope. And they have retired the S-3 Viking and their ASW capability from the carriers...with no replacement.

The Spruance destroyers, among the quietest most effective ASW platforms we had have all benn decommissioned, many of them with 10-15 years service life left. A large part of them have been sunk in live fire exercises. IMHO it is a sad day when you see sites like these...

We have sunk nineteen of the class to date.

Spruance DD 963 - class disposition

Ship's Name	Hull Number	Homeport / Status
SPRUANCE	DD 963	decommissioned, sunk as target
PAUL F. FOSTER	DD 964	decommissioned
KINKAID	DD 965	decommissioned, sunk as target
HEWITT	DD 966	decommissioned, scrapped
ELLIOT	DD 967	decommissioned, sunk as target
ARTHUR W. RADFORD	DD 968	decommissioned
PETERSON	DD 969	decommissioned, sunk as target
CARON	DD 970	decommissioned, sunk during tests
DAVID R. RAY	DD 971	decommissioned
OLDENDORF	DD 972	decommissioned, sunk as target
JOHN YOUNG	DD 973	decommissioned, sunk as target
COMTE DE GRASSE	DD 974	decommissioned, sunk as target
O'BRIEN	DD 975	decommissioned, sunk as target
MERRILL	DD 976	decommissioned, sunk as target
BRISCOE	DD 977	decommissioned, sunk as target
STUMP	DD 978	decommissioned, sunk as target
CONOLLY	DD 979	decommissioned
MOOSBRUGGER	DD 980	decommissioned, scrapped
JOHN HANCOCK	DD 981	decommissioned, scrapped
NICHOLSON	DD 982	decommissioned, sunk as target
JOHN RODGERS	DD 983	decommissioned, scrapped
LEFTWICH	DD 984	decommissioned, sunk as target
CUSHING	DD 985	decommissioned
HARRY W. HILL	DD 986	decommissioned, sunk as target
O'BANNON	DD 987	decommissioned
THORN	DD 988	decommissioned, sunk as target
DEYO	DD 989	decommissioned, sunk as target
INGERSOLL	DD 990	decommissioned, sunk as target
FIFE	DD 991	decommissioned, sunk as target
FLETCHER	DD 992	decommissioned
HAYLER	DD 997	decommissioned, sunk as target