The norm is for inventory to decline in the winter months.
Also, those properties aren't off the market because they've been sold. They're off because sellers gave up trying to get what they think they are "worth".
The decline in active listings for Northern Virginia began long before winter, which starts December 21 and includes only one full month (January) in the data available at this time. The decline actually began in the middle of the summer.
To make my case, here are a few statistics from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (I am not a realtor. Nor do I play one on TV):
For Northern Virginia as a whole:
The numbers in parenthesese are for the same month a year earlier (2005)
June 2006: Active Listings: 12,096 (4,061); Sales: 2,252 (2,654)
July 2006: Active Listings: 11,956 (4,843); Sales: 1,856 (3,058)
Aug. 2006: Active Listings: 11,320 (5,005); Sales: 2,029 (3,112)
Sept. 2006: Active Listings: 11,147 (6,693); Sales: 1,547 (2,377)
Oct. 2006: Active Listings: 10,380 (7,122); Sales: 1,498 (1,901)
Nov. 2006: Active Listings: 8,861 (6,744); Sales: 1,475 (1,933)
Dec. 2006: Active Listings: 7,205 (5,659); Sales: 1,710 (2,131)
Jan. 2007: Active Listings: 6,949 (5,876), Sales: 1,349 (1,225)
The above numbers show that not only is inventory declining every month, but the gap between one month's inventory and the lower level of inventory a year earlier has declined every single month since June. At the same time, the percentage of decline in sales from the previous year has narrowed every month since July (except for November), and reversed in January to become a gain.
Here are the numbers in percent change from the year earlier, also from the realtors:
June 2006: Active Listings: Up 197.86 percent; Sales: Down 36.76 percent
July 2006: Active Listings: Up 146.87 percent; Sales: Down 39.31 percent
Aug. 2006: Active Listings: Up 126.17 percent; Sales: Down 34.80 percent.
Sept. 2006: Active Listings: Up 66.55 percent; Sales: Down 34.92 percent.
Oct. 2006: Active Listings: Up 45.75 percent; Sales: Down 21.20 percent.
Nov. 2006: Active Listings: Up 31.39 percent; Sales: Down 23.69 percent.
Dec. 2006: Active Listings: Up 27.32 percent: Sales: Down 19.76 percent.
Jan. 2007: Active Listings: Up 18.26 percent; Sales: Up 10.12 percent.
While one wonders what happened to the listings taken off the market, one can only speculate what it means. Some may have been taken off the market and sold privately and so do not appear in the multiple listings. No doubt some were testing to see how much they could get for their house, realizing the peak of the market had been reached. When it didn't sell at an inflated price, they took it off the market. Some no doubt rented their houses and took them off the market. While others thought they would wait until the market recovered.
Bottom Line: The worm has turned.