I need more data before I see this "stabilization" as anything except a dead-cat bounce. Of course I live beyond PW County, where there is a 9.5-month supply of inventory. In the 500K+ range, there's a 3-year supply in my zip code. I am paying $1,750 a month in rent for a house listed for $675K. Who's going to blink first?
I currently see prices being dropped daily on current listings, listings at a higher level than last year and increasing, foreclosures in N. VA increasing at a dramatic level, and builders with more land in the pipeline.
There was a pick up in this market in Winter 2005-2006 from people who thought they were getting "deals", and now those are in foreclosure. There was an assumption that prices would rise in the Spring "as they always do", and thus the panic buying that Winter.
A daily read for me is www.bubbleinfo.com, (great realtor in Carlsbad, CA), and he pointed out a chart a year ago that shows how the "Spring Selling Season" has been getting shorter and shorter for the last several years. There is a flurry of activity in February/March/April, and then it flatlines for the rest of the year.
I said the market is regional and the places showing the largest inventory and consequently the biggest p[rice declines are those that ratcheted up the fastest in the past. Many people put their homes on the market for no other reason then to cash in and pocket the appreciation. It's not the same as people retiring and selling to head to wherever or for people to sell and move up in the same area. AS to who will blink 1st in your case? Who knows but there is something you ought to know. No one rings a bell when a market cycle bottoms and begins to head upwards. The recovery will be regional and uneven, just as the upward cycle was. Some areas never saw a slackening of demand of more then 1-2% over the records of previous years. Personally I believe the overall existing home market bottomed in September of 06.
"I currently see prices being dropped daily on current listings, listings at a higher level than last year and increasing, foreclosures in N. VA increasing at a dramatic level, and builders with more land in the pipeline."
Again, a regional phenomenon. Actually, nationwide, the inventory of existing homes has dropped about 1% from the peak in 2006 due to sellers becoming more realistic. Price reductions are merely a normal part of the cycle since the way to move excess inventory is to "put it on sale". Works every time.
"There was a pick up in this market in Winter 2005-2006 from people who thought they were getting "deals", and now those are in foreclosure. There was an assumption that prices would rise in the Spring "as they always do", and thus the panic buying that Winter."
That's all ancient history. It is the CURRENT trend that must be viewed. As I said before, the existing home market (80% of all home sales)must turn before the new home market (20%) does and we have already begun to see that with existing home sales up 4 of the past 5 months and with RE tracking services reporting higher traffic and more web site hits then last year during the same period.
"A daily read for me is www.bubbleinfo.com, (great realtor in Carlsbad, CA), and he pointed out a chart a year ago that shows how the "Spring Selling Season" has been getting shorter and shorter for the last several years. There is a flurry of activity in February/March/April, and then it flatlines for the rest of the year."
How does this man become an expert on the national market? The peak selling months have always been March-May followed by a drop off in June and a comeback in July and August, another drop in Sept and a short flurry in late Sept-end of October. Even this is regional and what I have noted is for the south Eastern part of MASS.
The bottom line is that no one knows exactly when and how the cycle will turn. All one can do is look at what has already happened in the past and by doing that we see the trend of existing homes sales has indeed turned. Will it last? Only time will tell.