[Al Simmons]

"Having said all of that, if Rudy is not nominated, the GOP nominee will be beaten like a drum by the Dem nominee, more likely than not, in fact considerably more likely than not, at least one standard deviation from the mean more likely than not, which means the Dem will be a 2-1 favorite. You can write that down."

You're right - this is shaping up as another 1952-type race (except that the Rats don't have an Ike, thank God!!) - we have an uber-unpopular president, in time of war, and his party will get their butts whipped unless we can "think outside the box".

And if you do that there is only ONE name - RUDY.

[WOSG]

1. Writing down Torie's prediction doesnt make it true.
2. Voting Rudy is hardly 'outside the box' wrt Iraq. Rudy has been a good and loyal defender of Bush administration on Iraq. Its one thing I credit Rudy for. But if your pole-star is unpopularity in Iraq, you have to forget about the two GOP "frontrunners" Rudy and McCain. Rudy will be tied back to Bush on WOT, rightly so.

... IF YOU REALLY WANT TO THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX, GO OUTSIDE WASHINGTON! That means dump McCain and go for Huckabee or Romney! Both are Governors, and GOVERNORS MAKE GREAT OUTSIDER CANDIDATES - ask Jimmy Carter, ask Ronald Reagan, ask Bill Clinton.

There is no precedent for someone who never held either Governorship nor national office or post becoming President. Rudy faces stiff odds.

"You're right - this is shaping up as another 1952-type race"

If we want to win it back, I suggest think OUTSIDE THE DC BOX. ... Romney or Huckabee.