BBC: Iran 'failed to meet UN deadline' ~ a report by the nuclear watchdog , IAEA has said.
Ernest_at_the_Beach posted:
"Plans
At the same time, the BBC has reported that the United States has drawn up
plans for an attack on Iran to cover two contingencies - the confirmed
development of nuclear weapons by Iran, or backing by Iran for a major attack
on US troops in Iraq. "
Though only a single source for this info exists at present, this BBC article, it fits well with all I have seen and heard, and with the opinions of respected colleagues.
Bush himself said last week that he "does not have the authority to attack Iran" and that he would need to go through Congress to get such authority.
From the quantity and breadth of combat power deployed to the Gulf region since January 07, there is a consensus that combat power is likely to be necessary, you don't send that much firepower, especially integrated firepower, halfway around the globe otherwise, it is too expensive and there are much less expensive methods of "sending a message".
The most likely scenarios are outlined above. Either US Command Authority expects Iran to attack us, as a result of something we have planned inside Iraq, slightly inside Iran as an extension of plans for Iraq or Lebanon or both, or US Command Authority expects Iran to provoke us, non-militarily, to the point where Congressional authority for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is an expected given.
Iran may decide to play possum, ignoring our "provocations" and hoping that Liberal influence grows with time and ends up pulling us out of the region militarily.
National Command Authority has almost certainly considered this possibility and yet we still made the expensive choice to deploy integrated combat power to the region.
Therefore, whatever we have planned is more likely than not to provoke an Iranian response whether they wish it or not.
We are going to make them an offer they can't refuse, and the result will likely be war.
Though our "provocation" may be one single event, I and others think this unlikely. The most likely scenario is that we escalate pressure on Iraq, and Iran by extension, a series of events trending towards more impact, towards two objectives, until Iran concedes the game, or comes out swinging.
Those objectives are:
1. Victory in Iraq, under our terms.
2. The end of Iranian nuclear weapon ambitions.
Bush knows he only has so much time. Summertime in the Gulf is hot enough to reduce US troop effectiveness while wearing MOPP Level 4 NBC protective suits. The Democrats are organizing, and finding new ways to exert pressure for a pullout. Large scale US casualties in Iraq may swing the narrowly supportive US public support for the surge (53% for, 46 percent against by the latest polls) towards support for a pullout. Iran is progressing towards a nuclear fait accompli. Current funding for operations in Iraq is being spent, advancing the time when Bush will have to ask Congress for more money, at which point Bush may be forced into giving consessions in return for funding approval.
Right now I see us in a consolidation phase. New troops and combat systems arriving in theater, small gains in terrain and objectives, but mostly settling in and spreading out, getting adjusted.
When the settling in process is complete, expecct offensive operations to escalate rapidly. We may not even realize the escalation is in progress before open war breaks out or provocations reach the point where Congress is involved.
Involving Congress is not necessarily a given. Bush's comments of last week aside, if Iran does something so blatant as to clearly and obviously invoke Presidential discretion, the Spirits could begin arriving on target overnight while we sleep.
My gut says Congressional involvement in a decision process towards war is more likely than not, but the lesser probability of independant Presidential authority for an attack is not out of the question.
Stay tuned, midgame is ending, and endgame is approaching.
And this reporter got this either form his wet dreams or from a source that was told by another source who in turn heard it from a third source that is close to the daughter of a third tier secretary that works in the White House.
BUMP.
Thank you for posting and keeping an eye on the ball, Ernest.
And Jeffers, as always, thank you for your assessments ( #3 below)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1789267/posts?page=3#3
Nothing gets by these Brits. No wonder they've been a global power for so long.