Well, we saw in South Dakota - a red state - that when abortion was on the ballot and the people given a flat up or down vote, they voted for abortion.
So, we have this situation, in which the country isn't going to do the right thing. Overturn Roe and throw it back to the states? Most of them will vote, in the end, to keep abortion legal. A handful won't. Maybe. But then again, maybe not (the South Dakota vote wasn't that close).
Pro-lifers probably won't budge. Are they the majority of Republicans in the majority of states, or not?
I'm going to assume that Giuliani will play the best among all of the GOP candidates nationwide, because McCain's time has passed and Romney's a Mormon and that creeps people out (whether they admit it openly or not). Giuliani is America's Mayor, etc. Will the Republican voters in primaries in California and New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois and Ohio and Michigan and all of New England - all those blue state Republicans - vote for him? Probably.
He could win the nomination WITHOUT the support of conservatives, in a field where NONE of the GOP leaders are conservative.
And then it's into the general election, where everyone can vote. America's Mayor versus Hillary Clinton? Giuliani wins. Unless a third party candidate runs to his right.
Interesting times.
Dear Vicomte13,
"Well, we saw in South Dakota - a red state - that when abortion was on the ballot and the people given a flat up or down vote, they voted for abortion."
We saw a law banning abortion WITHOUT EXCEPTIONS FOR RAPE OR INCEST getting 44% of the vote.
They'll try again with one with exceptions for the life of the mother, rape, and incest.
We'll see what happens then.
sitetest
I disagree with your logic. You seem to think Rudy can win with the liberal republican vote only. Those are the libertarians, and they've never won an election on their own.