Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: TruthShallSetYouFree
This entire global warming brouhaha has evolved from one of the most frequently made statistical fallacies--equating commonality with causation. The libs' big lie starts with two statistically irrefutable facts: (1)There has been tremendous worldwide industrial growth in the past century, and, (2)The average temperature worldwide has increased in that time period. The fallacy is in asserting, with no real proof, that the first fact is a major cause of the second.

BINGO! Although this appears to be one of the simplest logical ways to impart skepticism on the role of man in global warming, it is lost on some people. I wasted my time trying to explain the difference between causation and commonality to a friend of a friend who was prattling on about how we are cooking ourselves. I was using very basic examples- (ice cream sales are higher during the warm summer months, violent crime rates are highest during the same period, ice cream does not necessarily make violent criminals). It became apparent that I had wasted my time as she summed up the conversation with "If what you say is true, it looks like we can expect more violent crime as a result of global warming." I made a mental note to never speak to that person again...
11 posted on 02/21/2007 7:15:17 AM PST by philled ("Enshrine mediocrity and the shrines are razed."-- Ellsworth Toohey)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies ]


To: philled

I have a close friend who, like me, has been a fan of the NY Yankees for over 50 years. He had me rolling on the floor in hysterics one night, as he explained how, as a youth, at critical moments in a game he would lie down on the living room rug in front of the television and place one foot on the Volume Knob and the other on the Channel Selection Knob. He claimed that this helped the Yankees win the pennant every year. Of course, it helped that they had Mantle, Berra, Ford, Howard, Skowron, Maris, et al. A prime example of confusing commonality with causation.


14 posted on 02/21/2007 7:33:48 AM PST by TruthShallSetYouFree (Abortion is to family planning what bankruptcy is to financial planning.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]

To: philled

Please read post 17.


18 posted on 02/21/2007 8:20:58 AM PST by cogitator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]

To: philled
I wasted my time trying to explain the difference between causation and commonality to a friend of a friend who was prattling on about how we are cooking ourselves.

Its okay that your friend cannot rcognize the difference between causation and commonality. Its a terrible thing when so called scientists such as David Suzuki refuse to acknowledge the difference. She is merely ignorant. He knows better and that makes him a fraud.

21 posted on 02/21/2007 8:36:28 AM PST by CharacterCounts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson