It is now looking like a certain win for Sarkovy. He has a very large lead in the first round, 33 to 26 points, over Royal; given that the #3 and #4 candidates are another center-right candidate and the nationalist candidate. In the run-off, Sarkovy is projected to win by 10 points.
Sarkovy has deftly appealed both to nationalist and centrists. Here, in America, when a candidate can combine social conservatives + soft libertarians + moderate Republicans, it spells victory. Apparently, that's the way it is in France as well.
The electorate in France has shifted to the right. It used to be that the Socialists + Communists + assorted other fringe leftists equaled about 50 percent of the vote. But, this year, Royal would have to figure out how to motivate the hard core left to vote for her in the second round, and also appeal to a lot of non-socialist centrists. This is looking more and more impossible.
In my opinion, Royal has moved to the left to shake things up, maybe because she has figured out that appealing to the non-Socialist center ain't going to do the job, so, why not?
We can only hope that Hillary and the Democrats do the same thing next year.
Hillary will get the radical Left to vote for her and appeal to the independents by bringing back memories of the "Glorious '90s" where everything went well.