Rudy was never a long shot. That is a myth. By 9-12-01, he was the frontrunner.
True, but it makes for a nore interesting narrative. 23 months until the next inaugration is a long time!
Agreed. The idea that the conservative "base" would represent an impassable barrier preventing him from gaining the nomination was an attempt at self-fulfilling prophecy (and inflated self-importance) from people who (1) don't like Giuliani and (2) consider themselves part of said "base".
He may not gain the nomination, of course, but it is far from the impossibility that some paint/wish it to be.