Area, thanks for the polls. I think this one was pretty interesting.
I was especially surprised to see Duncan Hunter had pretty high negatives for someone nobody's ever heard of. He can't even win over Republicans at 6% positive, 8% negative. That makes me think he won't have much of a bounce.
Tancredo at least wins among Republicans but at 8% positive, 6% negative not by much.
Apparently about 2% of Connecticut's population consider illegal immigration to be the most important issue, which is likely to be a plausible figure nationally. That means 2%, possibly split between Duncan Hunter and Tancredo.
Looks to me like Rudy, love him or not, is our best chance for 2008. He has good crossover appeal and wins in the horse race.
Low name recognition can be fixed easily between now and the election, but if most of the people who have heard of Tancredo or Hunter don't particularly care for them, they're not going to come even close to winning the nomination.
D
Vy clever and quick analysis of the situation, IMHO.
Wow, you're reading a hell of a lot into very small numbers. The fact that this poll shows the Dems winning just about every scenario (except McCain vs. Edwards) should give you an idea of the skew in the sampling. Assuming that, it's not surprising that Hunter's numbers or anyone else with an "R" in front of their name would have higher than expected negatives.
You got it right.