Posted on 02/16/2007 4:56:04 AM PST by Spiff
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who said Wednesday night he is making a bid for the White House, will not be America’s 44th president because he supports abortion rights and gay rights and has been married three times.
At least so says Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission.
Land is considered an influential evangelical leader, and he has a new book, due out next month, entitled The Divided States of America? What Liberals and Conservatives Are Missing in the God-and-Country Shouting Match — with a foreword written by Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn).
Land told The Hill in an interview this week that as it stands now, the top tier of Republican presidential hopefuls lacks a candidate social conservatives can be fully comfortable voting for.
Beginning with Giuliani, Land said “the vast majority” of social conservative voters will not vote for the former mayor even if he gets the nomination and faces off against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).
“If he wins, he’ll do so without social conservatives,” Land said.
While Giuliani’s moderate to liberal stances on social issues are beginning to be discussed more and more in conservative circles, Land said the mayor’s annulment, divorce and subsequent third marriage will seal the deal against hizzoner for social conservatives.
“It’s got to surface at some point,” Land said. “There are too many social conservatives talking about it, and it applies to [Newt] Gingrich, too.”
Land talks often about the weight social conservatives carry within the Republican Party, citing exit polling and warning GOP candidates that they can “no more win without conservative voters than a Democrat can without overwhelming support from blacks.”
“That’s the reality of politics in the early 21st century,” he said.
Land looked at the current field of Republican candidates and offered his appraisal — not endorsement — of those he views to be in contention.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has to “convince” social conservatives his conversions on issues such as abortion and gay rights are authentic rather than politically motivated, Land said, adding that many conservatives will likely give Romney the benefit of the doubt on his changed abortion position.
“Conservatives would see that as ‘He’s seen the light,’” Land said. “They would see it as less of a flip-flop than as a journey.”
Of Romney’s Mormon religion, Land said it’s not a “deal-killer.”
Land said he has encouraged the former governor to reach out to social conservatives about his religion and appeal to “the American people’s sense of fair play,” much as President Kennedy addressed his Catholicism in front of the Greater Houston Ministerial Association in 1960.
As for oft-perceived Republican frontrunner Sen. John McCain, Land paused, then said the Arizona senator’s strengths with independent voters are what is hurting him with socially conservative voters.
McCain’s “maverick” streak may be a winning personality trait for reporters and independents, but social conservatives consider it to be a sign of unpredictability.
“They don’t like being surprised,” Land said.
Though Land doesn’t question McCain’s consistency on abortion issues, he said McCain’s involvement in the “Gang of 14” — the bipartisan Senate group that prevented the “nuclear” option on judicial nominees — and his refusal to support anti-gay marriage proposals severely hurts his chances with traditional-values voters.
In the end, Land said, social conservatives are concerned about the kind of judges a President McCain would nominate.
“Voting pro-life is not enough,” Land said. “He has got to express himself in other venues.”
Add that to the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform law, legislation that sparked an outcry in religious organizations, and McCain, despite a conservative record and his continued, loyal backing of President Bush, does not come in as a favorite of the religious right.
But Land said the second tier of candidates offers voters of his ilk two contenders so-called values voters could get behind — Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R).
Both men are considered long-shots at this early stage of the game, but Land said impressive fundraising or gains in the polls could open a door to either candidate through which social conservatives might run.
“They don’t have to convince other social conservatives they’re one of them,” Land said. “They just have to convince other social conservatives they can win.”
Land called Huckabee a “Republican Bill Clinton,” praising the longtime governor’s charisma and affability with voters.
“I think he could catch fire,” Land said.
As it stands today, probably a good 10 months away from the first votes, Land said Romney and McCain “get the first chance to close the deal,” but concedes with those two as the frontrunners, social conservatives are left without a candidate who makes them 100 percent comfortable.
“That’s why if I were a Brownback supporter or a Romney supporter, I wouldn’t be all that discouraged,” he said.
As for Democrats, Land challenges the assumption held by many that Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, giving her “50-50” chances.
He said as he talks to conservative voters, he hears the word “calculating” used most often to describe the former first lady and cites “Clinton-Bush” fatigue as one of the factors working against her.
“When people talk to me about her, their facial expressions change,” he said.
From the Pew research above, those that attend church once a week or more and vote Republican make up 25% of all voters. I'll be kind and say that 80% of these will still vote for Guliani, though I don't believe that it will be that high. You think you are going to pull 5,600,000 voters away from the Democrat nominee? (To get the same numbers that President Bush received.) I don't believe it is possible. If you do, more power to you.
You're apparently too blinded by Rudy's star power to realize you just shot your guy in the butt by raising the issue of illegal immigration.
Well, Rudy is pro-war, while independents and Dems are largely antiwar. And Rudy is pro-choice and pro-gun-control, whereas a leading pull from Dems to the GOP is a pro-life and pro-gun-rights nominee.
So I'm really not sure how Rudy would make up losses in the base.
And the MSM kept running polls showing that an "unnamed Democrat" could easily beat GWB. Problem was that the best they had was Kerry.
I don't doubt that 53% want more choices. That's not the point. The point is that "someone new" coming in off the street is not going to beat established GOP contenders. Also, that 53% is by no means monolithic -- if "someone new" came along many of those 53% would say "no that's NOT what I wanted".
Good, bad or ugly the GOP nomination works a lot like a seniority system. The nominee is generally no surprise. I don't see that changing this time -- it will almost certainly be Giuliani, McCain, Romney or Gingrich. All of the others are a bunch of mini-mees -- nothing against them personally, that's just how it is.
That's like passing off a snake as thoroughbred horse because both have tails.
Except this poll was not from the MSM, but from Fox.
I don't doubt that 53% want more choices.
I think you are oblivious to the growing dissatisfaction with the status quo in this country. And even if only half truly feel that way, that puts one-quarter of the GOP base out of Rudy's reach. Other polling has shown that twenty percent of pubbies will not vote for Rudy because of his views on abortion, and twenty-five percent more have serious reservations on that subject. In addition, as many pubbies think Rudy is pro-life as those who realize he is pro-choice. That will erode his support as Rudy's views on abortion become more widely known.
And that does not even begin to address the problems Rudy will have with NRA voters in the primaries.
MSM polls right now are beauty contests. When the primaries draw closer, people will pay a lot more attention to the actualy history of the candidates. And that can only hurt Rudy's chances, as polls have clearly indicated.
The minority party RINOS are making it----didn't know you were a prophet in your own time, did you?
It's not enough to be against the status quo. There has to be a candidate against the status quo who can get enough support to win. Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul are both against the status quo, but nobody really believes they are more than fringe candidates.
All the polling data showed, without a doubt, that he couldn't win the general election, but still he won the primary vote because the moderate vote was split. And Graf lost the general by a huge margin.
There is the same possibility in this election. Rudy and McCain split the moderate vote and an extremist lucks into the nomination, to lose to Hillary by 20 points.
Which is why so many voters want a new face. That's one reason why a newbie like Obama is giving Hillary a fight.
Nice job of changing the context of what you said to "prove" your point.
Independents may be anti-war, but they're definitely pro-national security. I'm not sure they analyze it any more deeply than that.
There's a major disconnect here that I don't understand. Perhaps you can explain it to me.
I think we all agree that Republican primary voters tend to be more conservative than the Republicans who vote in November. That being the case, Giuliani should have no chance to win the nomination, right?
Surely if he wins the nomination, he'll have broader appeal than to the conservative Republicans who handed him the nomination. I mean, he did win New York City in the mayoral races.
But, by all conventional wisdom, he shouldn't be able to win the GOP nomination. So why all the worry?
And that polling data coincided with vicious ad attacks against Graf, funded BY THE RNCC. And also with Kolbe's unwillingness to do the right thing and endorse the winner of the GOP primary.
The MSM has done a good job convincing many that the two are no longer one and the same.
I live in an open primary state. The effect isn't nearly so grand. Very few would actually vote in the opposing party's primary instead of their own.
...as is a vote for Giuliani!
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