Posted on 02/16/2007 4:56:04 AM PST by Spiff
From the Pew research above, those that attend church once a week or more and vote Republican make up 25% of all voters. I'll be kind and say that 80% of these will still vote for Guliani, though I don't believe that it will be that high. You think you are going to pull 5,600,000 voters away from the Democrat nominee? (To get the same numbers that President Bush received.) I don't believe it is possible. If you do, more power to you.
You're apparently too blinded by Rudy's star power to realize you just shot your guy in the butt by raising the issue of illegal immigration.
Well, Rudy is pro-war, while independents and Dems are largely antiwar. And Rudy is pro-choice and pro-gun-control, whereas a leading pull from Dems to the GOP is a pro-life and pro-gun-rights nominee.
So I'm really not sure how Rudy would make up losses in the base.
And the MSM kept running polls showing that an "unnamed Democrat" could easily beat GWB. Problem was that the best they had was Kerry.
I don't doubt that 53% want more choices. That's not the point. The point is that "someone new" coming in off the street is not going to beat established GOP contenders. Also, that 53% is by no means monolithic -- if "someone new" came along many of those 53% would say "no that's NOT what I wanted".
Good, bad or ugly the GOP nomination works a lot like a seniority system. The nominee is generally no surprise. I don't see that changing this time -- it will almost certainly be Giuliani, McCain, Romney or Gingrich. All of the others are a bunch of mini-mees -- nothing against them personally, that's just how it is.
That's like passing off a snake as thoroughbred horse because both have tails.
Except this poll was not from the MSM, but from Fox.
I don't doubt that 53% want more choices.
I think you are oblivious to the growing dissatisfaction with the status quo in this country. And even if only half truly feel that way, that puts one-quarter of the GOP base out of Rudy's reach. Other polling has shown that twenty percent of pubbies will not vote for Rudy because of his views on abortion, and twenty-five percent more have serious reservations on that subject. In addition, as many pubbies think Rudy is pro-life as those who realize he is pro-choice. That will erode his support as Rudy's views on abortion become more widely known.
And that does not even begin to address the problems Rudy will have with NRA voters in the primaries.
MSM polls right now are beauty contests. When the primaries draw closer, people will pay a lot more attention to the actualy history of the candidates. And that can only hurt Rudy's chances, as polls have clearly indicated.
The minority party RINOS are making it----didn't know you were a prophet in your own time, did you?
It's not enough to be against the status quo. There has to be a candidate against the status quo who can get enough support to win. Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul are both against the status quo, but nobody really believes they are more than fringe candidates.
All the polling data showed, without a doubt, that he couldn't win the general election, but still he won the primary vote because the moderate vote was split. And Graf lost the general by a huge margin.
There is the same possibility in this election. Rudy and McCain split the moderate vote and an extremist lucks into the nomination, to lose to Hillary by 20 points.
Which is why so many voters want a new face. That's one reason why a newbie like Obama is giving Hillary a fight.
Nice job of changing the context of what you said to "prove" your point.
Independents may be anti-war, but they're definitely pro-national security. I'm not sure they analyze it any more deeply than that.
There's a major disconnect here that I don't understand. Perhaps you can explain it to me.
I think we all agree that Republican primary voters tend to be more conservative than the Republicans who vote in November. That being the case, Giuliani should have no chance to win the nomination, right?
Surely if he wins the nomination, he'll have broader appeal than to the conservative Republicans who handed him the nomination. I mean, he did win New York City in the mayoral races.
But, by all conventional wisdom, he shouldn't be able to win the GOP nomination. So why all the worry?
And that polling data coincided with vicious ad attacks against Graf, funded BY THE RNCC. And also with Kolbe's unwillingness to do the right thing and endorse the winner of the GOP primary.
The MSM has done a good job convincing many that the two are no longer one and the same.
I live in an open primary state. The effect isn't nearly so grand. Very few would actually vote in the opposing party's primary instead of their own.
...as is a vote for Giuliani!
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