who says Rudy couldn't carry NY? Take a look at the senate voting pattern for NYS in 2000 (when Hillary had a actual opponent). The areas that put Hillary over the top, the NYC boroughs, are the same areas that elected Rudy mayor twice. Rudy would take Queens and Staten Island, and would run closer to Hillary then any other republican would in the Bronx, Manhattan and Brooklyn.
Rudy's polling at 40% in New York right now. Exactly what Bush drew there in 2004.
This is his home state. These are the people who know him best. And he's not polling any better than GWB did, against an Illinois carpet-bagger. He's not winning New York.
I guess you missed the humor --- I am not into predictions.