Kyoto too fleeting an issue with voters (Canada: enviro based election? Bring it on!)

Edmonton Journal - Canada ^ | Sunday, February 11, 2007 | Lorne Gunter

[GMMAC]

Kyoto too fleeting an issue with voters
Liberals worried Canadians will see Dion as a one-trick pony

Lorne Gunter, Edmonton Journal
Published: Sunday, February 11, 2007 There are rumblings out of the Liberal caucus in Ottawa that the party's new leader, Stephane Dion, is a one-trick pony.

In a story in her paper's Saturday edition, the Toronto Star's Ottawa bureau chief, Susan Delacourt said several Liberals are worried that voters see their party as one-dimensional. One veteran Liberal strategist, from whom I had not heard since we worked together on Parliament Hill two decades ago, called me earlier this week to complain: "It's all Kyoto, Kyoto, Kyoto; environment, environment, environment here, all the time.

"For Christ's sake, you'd think the man didn't know another issue."

All Canada knows of the "green" scarves Dion's backers wore at the Liberal leadership convention in Montreal last December to show their support for him, as well as their passion for the environment. We have, since the House of Commons resumed last month, heard the Liberals' incessant drumbeat of concern over global warming.

We all know Dion named his dog Kyoto, but what of his parakeet Multiculturalism, his hamster Status of Women, his cat Income Fairness and his gerbil Charter Rights?

There are two basic problems for Dion and his advisers in putting all of their eggs in the Kyoto basket: The environment is an issue on which voter interest fluctuates with the economic climate -- and fluctuates very rapidly. And even when the environment rates high with voters, it is seldom the issue on which they make up their minds about who to vote for.

A third problem might be that voters like to talk about the environment, but are seldom prepared to do much of real consequence about it.

If the solutions cause them economic pain, they will run away from them. So for all their stated concern, voters are distrustful of people who propose solutions that would lead to job losses or higher prices and taxes.

For instance, in 1990 voters rated the environment as the No. 1 or No. 2 issue, as they do today. Lucien Bouchard, who had not yet bolted the Mulroney Tories to form the Bloc Quebecois, was environment minister, and there was serious talk then, too, of carbon taxes and emission caps.

But then the Constitution began to dominate the debate and -- more importantly for environmentalists -- the economy went sour. Canada was soon in the midst of its deepest recession since the Great Depression, and by 1992, the environment had fallen off the political map.

Admittedly, no constitutional or economic crisis appears imminent. So if an election is held within the next year, it is possible Canadians would go to the polls with the environment foremost in their minds, which for the Liberals would mesh nicely with their Kyoto preoccupation.

Still, generally, the environment is a luxury good in politics. Voters hold it in high regard only when there are no other more tangible claims on their attention, such as employment, growth, inflation, taxes, crime, traffic congestion, health services and so on.

Even if the Liberals can manage to force an election while the environment is high in the polls, the Tories should be able to deflect voter attention onto more practical concerns, thereby muting the environment's effect on the outcome.

The environment is also a remote, sentimental concern for electors. They are seldom prepared to put their money where their green hearts are.

Their concern is an inch deep.

You might tell pollsters you would consider riding your bike to work to save emissions provided your city builds lots of new bike paths and designates bike lanes on major roads. But when it came time to do so, you'd still be too busy to leave earlier to account for the added commute time, or too worried about sweating up your work clothes.

So what is the likelihood you'd vote for a politician who told you Canada had to cut its greenhouse emissions by one-third over the next five years -- Dion's plan -- since that would likely mean leaving your car at home every day and hopping on a bike or bus?

Last week, Maritz Automotive Research Group released its findings of a survey of 38,500 Canadians who bought new cars in 2006. Whether their new car was environmentally friendly or not ranked 23rd out of 26 reasons for buying the model they chose, ahead of only loyalty programs, security features and the ease of adding spinning hub caps, chrome grills and light racks. Value, performance, reliability, handling, safety, storage, even styling, towing capacity and interior appearance ranked higher.

Just 2.2 per cent of new car buyers let environmental concerns affect their choice. Sales of SUVs, by contrast, shot up 17 per cent in 2006.

Polls also show that consumers' concern for the environment begins to drop off when a one-cent per litre tax is proposed. Concern all but disappears at five cents per litre.

Dion and the Liberals might win an election among reporters and the chattering classes stumping on only the environment, but it will take more to win over ordinary Canadians.

lgunter@shaw.ca

© The Edmonton Journal 2007

[GMMAC]

Well & good ... unless the foolish & opportunistic Private Member's Bill launched by Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez (see: Kyoto bill may force election ~ John Ivison, National Post, February 9, 2007) has already set Parliament on a path of no return to an early general election.

Also, a lot of msm nonsense works from the seemingly unwarranted assumption that hoards of voters ('rust belt' Toronto Lakeshore cited as an example below) will jump at the chance to endorse job-killing, taxation-boosting enviro-insanity:
Environment politics to help Conservatives in urban ridings, says pollster Lyle
~ The Hill Times, February 12th, 2007

As noted in the red Star story linked within the article above, those on the left with any stratgic sense are becoming rightly worried at the thought of fighting a national election campaign unduly centered on the environment; especially with Stephane Dion being increasingly viewed (last week's abrupt 7% spike in CPC support) as a hypocritical single issue dork:

[GMMAC]

PING!

[bondjamesbond]

Nothing looks so dated as yesterday's big trend.

I predict that all of this Global Warming silliness is going to peak soon, and in a couple years we will all look back and laugh. I think the Green Weenies know this too, and want to get as many policies and permanently staffed positions into place quickly, before the public sentiment changes. That is the reason for the current "crisis" mentality.

[bondjamesbond]

One some level, you gotta believe that when your typical Canadian looks out the window in February and sees nothing, because the snow is up to his roof, he has to think, deep down, that Global Warming might not be all bad...

[styky]

It's been below -25 for a month and with the wind added in I awoke one morning to -54. Excuse me if the people in this province laugh at the mention of Global Warming. LOL

[GMMAC]

Pray the left is foolish enough to force an election based on environmental issues & especially compliance with Kyoto.
There isn't a single negative aspect of both it's world-view & ideological agenda that won't be a 'shooting fish in a barrel' easy target:
Aside from exposing its fanatical devotion to unproven as well as outright disproved 'scientific', economic & social theories, there's its blatantly social fascistic approach to imposing them & complete disdain for their dire real world impact on the population as a whole.

All three Opposition Parties essentially campaigning on a collective promise to wreck the economy for your own good is akin to presenting Stephen Harper & the Conservatives with an electoral blank cheque.
Besides this rightly appalling the population as a whole, it's tough to imagine a better way to alienate the left's core self-interested 'soccer mom' type of supporters than proposing to willfully threaten their jobs & otherwise imperil their families' overall security.

[xcamel]

FReepmail me to get on or off
Click on graphic for full GW rundown

[GMMAC]

... and lest anyone missed this gem:
Don't ruin economy over tiny temp rise ~ Mark Steyn, Chicago Sun-Times, February 11, 2007