In 2004 He still ran moderate but Kerry was a solid left winger and did not stray from that. Even at that Bush had a close race. He was loosing part of the GOP Conservative base by then. Had it been Lieberman or anyone else who would run center? Bush may well have lost it with a wide margin. 2004 wasn't a vote of confidence in Bush but more of a rejection of Kerry. Bush is too much like his dad {remember his cabinet is a majority of Poppy's people as well} and Jerry Ford especially on socila issues with Ford.
Yes, W is really more of a moderate. But my premise still stands. Conservatives win. Moderates Pubbies generally lose, and when they do win, it's a squeaker. Bush won because he talked like a conservative and a lot of us bought it.
Hillary! has been positioning herself as a moderate Dim. Around here we know better but the soccer moms will buy it. If Rudy runs against Hillary, Hillary will win.
Let's run a real conservative and stop screwing around with courting the Rockefeller wing.