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Poll Favors Giuliani In New Hampshire
Yahooooo via AP ^ | 2/12/07

Posted on 02/12/2007 6:43:36 AM PST by areafiftyone

MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.

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Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.

"He's the lesser-known candidate, but he has that rock star quality," poll director Andy Smith said of Giuliani. "He has a charisma that was built after 9-11."

This long before an election, political professionals pay more attention to favorability than voters' choices if they had to vote today. McCain and Giuliani were essentially tied at about 27 percent on that question among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9 percent.

The GOP portion of the telephone poll reached 311 likely voters from Thursday to Monday and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

Former Sen. John Edwards and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) had net favorability ratings ranging from 61 percent to 55 percent, too close to be statistically significant.

When asked for whom they would vote, 35 percent of likely Democratic voters picked Clinton, 21 percent Obama and 15 percent Edwards. Eight percent chose former Vice President Al Gore, who is not running.

The Democratic portion of the phone poll reached 353 likely voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.

Independents may vote in either primary, and 68 percent of them indicated they planned to vote in the Democratic primary compared to 32 percent leaning toward the GOP contest.

"This will hurt Republican candidates who try to appeal to more moderate, independent voters," Smith said.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire
KEYWORDS: 2008; adulterer; berniekerik; bluestateliberal; california; charlatan; corrupt; dontvote4rinos; electionpresident; elections; fake; fraud; giuliani; giuliani2008; gop; liberal; partysplitter; phony; republican; republicans; rudysgayroomates; snakeoilsalesman; zeroprinciples
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To: areafiftyone
NOT FOR ME!
21 posted on 02/12/2007 6:56:02 AM PST by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: Hydroshock

See post #18


22 posted on 02/12/2007 6:56:04 AM PST by TommyDale (Who do you trust? An ex-mayor? Or the ranking member of the House Committee on Armed Services?)
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To: areafiftyone

23 posted on 02/12/2007 6:56:48 AM PST by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: ilgipper

I would (reluctantly) vote for Giuliani vs. Hillary in the general.

But now, I'll work against him. And the fact is, I could forgive Giuliani for bad positions one one or maybe even two major issues - but he's about 0 for 6 on social and gun rights issues.

And I'm a fiscal conservative first and a social conservative second...but Rudy's just not fitting the bill.


24 posted on 02/12/2007 6:57:01 AM PST by RockinRight (When Chuck Norris goes to bed at night, he checks under the bed for Jack Bauer.)
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To: areafiftyone
New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think...

Its hard to know what to think about this snapshot of polling data at this stage in time.

If only these pollsters could show a trend, I could give them a little more credence. For example, if they could say where Rudy was in the NH polls 1000 years ago, 500 years ago, 100 years ago... and NOW this one with 1 year to go, I could form a much more informed opinion!

25 posted on 02/12/2007 6:57:25 AM PST by C210N (Bush SPIED, Terrorists DIED!)
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To: Fierce Allegiance

Average voters probably know his stances on social issues. That's why he's doing well, in many polls. The majority of republicans are conservative, and Rudy is the least conservative Republican who will probably run for President. The conservative vote splits, causing him to lead, in many states, with 30%-40%.

I think his moderate views will help him win the majority of the primaries, but he won't get the nomiation. During the convention, a candidate must receive a majority of votes to become the nominee, and the majority of the delegates won't vote for someone who is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and pro-gun control. The nomination will probably be won by McCain, Gingrich, or Romney.


26 posted on 02/12/2007 7:01:27 AM PST by PhilCollins
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To: areafiftyone

A year from now? A year from now. A lot can change in one year in politics.

I love your over-eagerness. It is destined to burn out.


27 posted on 02/12/2007 7:02:54 AM PST by La Enchiladita (Hunter/Poe 2008 "Once again, our government is on the wrong side of the border war")
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To: C210N

Just wait until the New Hampshire pro-lifers and gun people start working on Rudy. It won't be pretty, but I'll enjoy it (heh heh heh).


28 posted on 02/12/2007 7:03:44 AM PST by LiveFree99
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To: PhilCollins
The nomination will probably be won by McCain, Gingrich, or Romney.

Congratulations on the Most Depressing Prediction of the Day.

29 posted on 02/12/2007 7:03:58 AM PST by Wormwood (Your Friendly Neighborhood Moderate)
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To: ilgipper

"So the candidate that 'everyone' must get behind must be a 100% social conservative"

I shouldn't have said "everyone". I should have said "almost everyone".

There's always someone who's not going to vote for a candidate because of the color of their hair...

But we can't afford to give up even 5% of the base. Presidential elections tend to be way to close for that.


30 posted on 02/12/2007 7:04:06 AM PST by babygene (Never look into the laser with your last good eye...)
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To: Ingtar
Currently the polls are fairly high for him in the South. However, if and when he gets the nomination and the kid gloves of media come off, this support will plummet.

Not necessarily. Rudy has been the named partner in a major Houston law firm (albeit its New York office) for a few years now, i.e. building his southern creds.

Bracewell & Giuliani LLP
711 Louisiana Street, Suite 2300
Houston, Texas 77002-2770

He's tapping into Bush '41's Texas network.

 

31 posted on 02/12/2007 7:05:12 AM PST by peyton randolph (What we have done for others and the world remains and is immortal - Albert Pike)
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To: Peach
Indeed, in one recent poll, majorities of Republicans who were informed of Giuliani’s views on social issues said that they were either minor issues or no issues at all; only 16% said that they wouldn't vote for him after being informed of these views.

In other words, Rudy loses 16 percent of the base. Which means he would lose the general election, since he is a pro-war candidate and moderates and centrist Dems are strongly anti-war.

Thanks for proving what conservative Freepers have been saying all along.

32 posted on 02/12/2007 7:06:57 AM PST by dirtboy (Duncan Hunter 08)
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To: Wormwood

Gingrich, out of those three, is the most appealing.

Why? He's no WORSE than Rudy on personal life issues, and I'd argue slightly better since Newt never lived with gay friends or married his cousin.

And he's much more conservative on other issues.


33 posted on 02/12/2007 7:07:25 AM PST by RockinRight (When Chuck Norris goes to bed at night, he checks under the bed for Jack Bauer.)
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To: PhilCollins

At the convention, not all states allocate their votes bases on the percentage of the actual primary results. Some give all their votes to the winner, some don't. It is possible for a minority to win a nomination. They just never win the election.


34 posted on 02/12/2007 7:07:51 AM PST by TommyDale (Who do you trust? An ex-mayor? Or the ranking member of the House Committee on Armed Services?)
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To: peyton randolph
Not necessarily. Rudy has been the named partner in a major Houston law firm (albeit its New York office) for a few years now, i.e. building his southern creds.

Ah. So because he has business interests in Houston, that will convince social conservatives in South Carolina to vote for him.

Gotcha.

35 posted on 02/12/2007 7:07:59 AM PST by dirtboy (Duncan Hunter 08)
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To: RockinRight
Why? He's no WORSE than Rudy on personal life issues,

Newt is pro-life and pro-gun. For starters.

36 posted on 02/12/2007 7:08:47 AM PST by dirtboy (Duncan Hunter 08)
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To: peyton randolph

Yes, but Rudy has been representing liberal causes such as eminent domain through that law office. Don't think the southern conservatives are going to be tricked that easily.


37 posted on 02/12/2007 7:09:15 AM PST by TommyDale (Who do you trust? An ex-mayor? Or the ranking member of the House Committee on Armed Services?)
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To: Hydroshock

This kind of makes you wonder if the New Hampshire primaries are open to democrats.


38 posted on 02/12/2007 7:09:41 AM PST by antisocial (Texas SCV - Deo Vindice)
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To: Peach

wait until the commercial comes out that rudy is anti-gun, anti-life, pro-amnesty followed by a caption of him dressed in drag. you can downplay these positions but they will hurt him.


39 posted on 02/12/2007 7:09:41 AM PST by philsfan24
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To: dirtboy

Rudy will lose much more than 16% of the base in the GOP. He is very likely to lose 16% or more of the entire party.


40 posted on 02/12/2007 7:10:37 AM PST by TommyDale (Who do you trust? An ex-mayor? Or the ranking member of the House Committee on Armed Services?)
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