Poll Favors Giuliani In New Hampshire

Yahooooo via AP ^ | 2/12/07

[areafiftyone]

MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.

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Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.

"He's the lesser-known candidate, but he has that rock star quality," poll director Andy Smith said of Giuliani. "He has a charisma that was built after 9-11."

This long before an election, political professionals pay more attention to favorability than voters' choices if they had to vote today. McCain and Giuliani were essentially tied at about 27 percent on that question among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9 percent.

The GOP portion of the telephone poll reached 311 likely voters from Thursday to Monday and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

Former Sen. John Edwards and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) had net favorability ratings ranging from 61 percent to 55 percent, too close to be statistically significant.

When asked for whom they would vote, 35 percent of likely Democratic voters picked Clinton, 21 percent Obama and 15 percent Edwards. Eight percent chose former Vice President Al Gore, who is not running.

The Democratic portion of the phone poll reached 353 likely voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.

Independents may vote in either primary, and 68 percent of them indicated they planned to vote in the Democratic primary compared to 32 percent leaning toward the GOP contest.

"This will hurt Republican candidates who try to appeal to more moderate, independent voters," Smith said.

[TommyDale]

"At least one poster on this thread said they would prefer Obama to Rudy."

I could actually understand that. Rudy has some serious enemies, and a few might feel safer with Hillary or Obama.

[freespirited]

And in a more recent poll, when social conservatives were informed about Giuliani's extreme positions on abortion, partial birth abortion, gun control and amnesty for illegal border invaders, 48% turned their backs on him.

Tommy, we both know that your contempt for Rudy is enormous, but can we at least keep the facts straight?

The poll found that when those who support Rudy over McCain were informed of his positions on abortion and civil unions, 10% of those supporters were no longer willing to vote for him. Another 25% did not say that they were unwilling to vote for him, but that these views made them less likely to do so.

There were numbers for all persons polled. The "would not vote for him" and "less likely to do so" combined totaled 43%. I don't see these as being nearly as relevant, due to the inclusion of McCain supporters. If people are already committed to McCain, how they react to additional info about Rudy seems academic.

[Strategerist]

NYC's electorate is likely more representative of the country at large than Hunter's current or Newt's long-ago Congressional District.

And for people that haven't been to NYC or haven't been anywhere other than Manhattan, and have this exotic image of the city, a lot of Staten Island and Queens, once you get past the accent, really is pretty much everytown USA.

[tumblindice]

The fallacy of Composition is committed when a conclusion is drawn about a whole based on the features of its constituents when, in fact, no justification provided for the inference.
You are shocked that many of us here think that Free Republic is a microcosm of society or the conservative movement, and that we think it is 1980.
Thanks for straightening us out newbie, and welcome to FR.

[Oct1967]

I am not talking about RR, but of those conservatives who sit home cuz they dont like the top of the ticket rather than just undervoting thus ensuring that decent conservatives get defeated as well.

People here whien "where is the next Reagan" But we had one in Tom McClintok and the purists because they didnt like Arold, stay home ensuring the defeat of GOP candidates all down the ticket

[Vaquero]

yeah, Hoss, I do, but this was a quick and dirty way of showing Rudy, as a Nanny state socialist....

Granted he has not Chavezed our oil industry, but he has proposed picking my pocket for despicable social programs and that is socialist......

[You Dirty Rats]

missing the opportunity to boost their candidates' good qualities.

They have a candidate?

[TommyDale]

You are misreading the numbers. That was 18% would no longer vote for him + 25% would be less inclined to vote for him. Total was 43% not the 48% that was quoted here yesterday or Saturday. These are Gallup numbers, not mine. Go argue with Gallup. In any event, fully 4 out of 10 social conservatives are not inclined to support him when they learn of his positions.

[Blackirish]

New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.
Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.

---

WOW!!!! Rudy nailing down NH without even trying!!!
MAN.....Thats gotta leave a mark on the RudyHaters.

He's currently playing to standing ovation crowds in CA. Raising the big bucks.

No wonder the RudyHaters are out in force today.

[TommyDale]

You are the one misquoting. From the Gallup Poll article:

Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him, and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely.

[Oct1967]

Sorry pal, while they are certainly large, suburban yankees who are fiscal conservatives who will vote for Rudy are the rising political force in states like GA, TX and NC...In states where the 2004 vote wasnt close, the notion that evangelicals staying home will hand the state to Hillary is nonsense....in states where the vote was closer like MO, it could.

[Spiff]

to claim he is not a Republican is utter nonsense.

Really!!?

Giuliani/Clinton/Dem vs. GOP Platform Comparison
Issue	Giuliani	Clinton	Dem Platform	GOP Platform
Abortion on Demand	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Partial Birth Abortion	Supports Opposed NY ban	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Overturning Roe v. Wade	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Taxpayer Funded Abortions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Embryonic Stem Cell Research	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Federal Marriage Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Defined at state level	Supports
Gay Domestic Partnership/ Civil Unions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Openly Gay Military	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Defense of Marriage Act	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Amnesty for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Special Path to Citizenship for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Tough Penalties for Employers of Illegal Aliens	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Sanctuary Cities/ Ignoring Immigration Law	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Protecting 2nd Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Supports bans	Supports
Confiscating Guns	Supports Confiscated as mayor. Even bragged.	Supports	Supports Supports bans	Opposes
'Assault' Weapons Ban	Supports	Supports	Supports
Frivolous Lawsuits Against Gun Makers	Supports Filed One Himself	Supports		Opposes
Gun Registration/Licenses	Supports	Supports		Opposes
War in Afghanistan	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports	Supports
War in Iraq	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports Weak support	Supports
Patriot Act	Supports	Supports Voted for it 2001 & 2006	Opposes	Supports

"Most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." - Rudy Giuliani

[freespirited]

But even if he only loses half that net 12%, another 6%, then he's lost around a quarter of folks who nearly always vote Republican for the general election. That's somewhere around 12 million votes or more.

If these numbers bear out, Antoninus' prediction of 38% in the general for Mr. Giuliani may be overly optimistic.

You can't extrapolate those numbers to the general election. The reason is that in the general he will certainly be running against someone who favors fewer restrictions on abortion than he does and is at least as much in favor of gay rights.

[Oct1967]

"'When you have been on FR awhile longer, you well realize just how much the Republican base is made up of Evangelicals.""

Are you telling me the only ones who know how important the evangelical base in are those who have been on FR after some defined time?

[LiveFree99]

And as you previously posted, Rudy thinks the taxpayers have to pick up the tab so that poor women can exercise their "right" to have an abortion.

Thanks, Rudy fanatics, but I decline.

[sitetest]

Dear freespirited,

"The poll found that when those who support Rudy over McCain were informed of his positions on abortion and civil unions, 10% of those supporters were no longer willing to vote for him."

Actually, if you're referring to the recent Gallup poll, it was 18% who would definitely not vote for him after hearing about his views on social issues.

18% of the folks that usually vote Republican (excluding folks in the middle who sometimes vote R for president and sometimes vote D) will be about 9 million votes in 2008.

Even if the other 25% of folks who said they are less likely to vote for Mr. Giuliani all vote for him anyway, that's a devastating loss of the base.


sitetest

[You Dirty Rats]

Rudy has some serious enemies, and a few might feel safer with Hillary or Obama.

Very few.

I doubt your average GI Joe in Iraq would feel safer with Hillary or Obama as C-in-C, but who cares about the troops when Rudy has to be opposed on gay marriage grounds (which issue is a state issue anyway).

Can you please list the politicians who are serious enemies of Rudy? I would say there are fewer than for Hillary or McCain -- but perhaps you have Rudy's "enemies list" in your possession. If so please do share.

[Oct1967]

"""On the Democrat side, Bradley had already flamed out and Gore basically had the Rat nomination already sewed up""


Gore had it sown up after IA??? Hmmm interesting...it wasnt until his NH defeat that Bradley had flamed out....Again NH isnt the state it was in 1980...I could see Newt winning NH but only if McCain, Guliani and Mitt stayed in.

[sitetest]

Dear freespirited,

"The reason is that in the general he will certainly be running against someone who favors fewer restrictions..."

Maybe. Maybe not. Mrs. Clinton's views on abortion are about the same as Mr. Giuliani's. A minor shift here or there and Mrs. Clinton could run to the right of Mr. Giuliani on this issue.


sitetest

[freespirited]

You are the one misquoting. From the Gallup Poll article:

Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him, and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely.

No Tommy, let me try again. That refers to the entire sample. I tried to explain to you why I don't see the answers from the entire sample as particularly relevant.

You have to read further down the article to get the data on the subsample of Rudy supporters. That is what you really want to know. What percentage of his supporters would he lose. Not how many of McCain's supporters does he lose, which is reflected in the numbers you quote.

In this poll Rudy loses 10% of his supporters, and a quarter say they would be less likely to vote for him--not that they would refuse to do so.