An experiment that hints we are wrong on climate change

The Times ^ | 2/11/07 | Nigel Calder

[Monkey Face]

I not only remember history, I remember fairy tales as well...such as the Pied Piper.

And The Emperor's New Clothes. Talk about PR jobs!

[Monkey Face]

LOL!

Some things are dead giveaways, aren't they!

:o])

[steveab]

Noooooooooo! The sun can't cause climate change until politicans learn how to tax it!

[tje]

excellent... thanks...

[editor-surveyor]

Bump

[phs3]

ping

[edsheppa]

Dup.

But you're not alone, there are three duplicate threads.

[BuffaloJack]

It's a shame we don't see more Green House Gas debunkers.
The moonbats beat these poor guys up brutally whenever that find them.

[cogitator]

The problem with this observation is... if any of the next 5-10 years become the warmest year on record, and there aren't any markedly colder years in that time period, then it's still a warming trend.

Remember that after 1998, because 1999 was a La Nina year, the trend starting in 1998 was a strong cooling. That's changed as subsequent years have been warmer, and 2005 was only a tick under 1998.

Yet more betting on climate with World Climate Report

I think El Nino this year has pretty much fizzled, so I don't think 2007 will be a record year (I could be wrong, of course).

[Robert A Cook PE]

True, very true.

And, more importantly, if (as appears correct) we are at (or even near) the max of a long-duration sinewave cycle, then the gradual slip from that max occurs also in spits and spurts - the reduction in temperature will not be a smooth drop either.

Any given year may be higher or lower than its predecessor. And of course, if we are at a gain of +.8 degree, then it will take 4-6 years to drop back to even "average" temperatures.

And, all that time is enough for the propagandists to continue their war against the US economy.

But, as pointed out, the critical thing to see is that average tmperatures have NOT increased the past 8 years (1998 through 2006-2007: they HAVE remained steady, DESPITE the tremendous increase in greenhouses gasses from China and India and Brazil over those 8 years!

[cogitator]

But, as pointed out, the critical thing to see is that average tmperatures have NOT increased the past 8 years (1998 through 2006-2007: they HAVE remained steady, DESPITE the tremendous increase in greenhouses gasses from China and India and Brazil over those 8 years!

There's no expectation of linearity in a chaotic system, and the CO2 concentration is only going up a couple ppm. Over time, that becomes significant. In any given year, that's not much different than the year before. (Remember, you liked my post about the difference between climate and weather - a decade is barely enough to discern climate trends.

But... imagine if there had not been a monstrous El Nino in 1998, and it had been a normal or just slightly warmer year due to a moderate El Nino. Then what would the trend look like? 1998 threw off everything -- it yanked a small positive trend significantly higher, and it's so big that it disturbs perception of the underlying trend.