1. The officers selected to be members of the board are usually picked because they are available - not because they have any special qualifications.
2. Fitness reports are designed to evaluate how the reporting senior feels about an officer's performance of duty and they aren't weighted towards combat performance, though that would seem to be the sina qua non of a soldier or Marine's perfomance.
The upshot of this, is that those with reporting seniors that like them and know how to work the inflated world of fitness report writing will rise to the top, not necessarily those that have proved themselves in the crucible of combat.
There was a saying in the Army, "you're always going to run into a guy who doesn't like the way you part your hair."
But, over time, I believe the cream does rise to the top. One bad OER usually doesn't sink someone, unless it has something to do with a person's character, morals, etc. Board members quickly learn how to look at trends.
As for combat experience. If there is a combat arms officer out there who hasn't been in Iraq or Afghanistan by now, any board member worth their salt is going to dig a little deeper.
I think promotion recommendations will always be an art and not a science.
"Rereading your 29 and 30 makes me believe you will not be convinced that the Army promotion system is fair, no matter what I say."
That's my opinion, based on the information I have. You haven't shown me any new information or new ways of looking at it, so why should I change my mind? I don't think that constitutes grounds for implying that I am unreasonable.
"I don't know what you mean by "bean counters" when it comes to officer promotions."
It's a personality type. They generally exert their influence before and during fitness report writing (OERs in the Army), so it doesn't really matter how many of them are on the selection boards.
"Promotion recommendations are made"
Yes, I'm aquainted with all that information. What you describe constitutes the equal treatment of unequals.
USMCVet is correct: Those with reporting seniors that like them and know how to work the inflated world of fitness report writing will rise to the top, not necessarily those that have proved themselves in the crucible of combat.
I suppose the Army could be different from the Navy in this, but in the Navy, one less-than-water-walker fitness report ruins a career. I've seen it many times.
When I was serving under one of the Swift Boat vets, when he was an O5 in command of a ship, an OCS ensign came aboard who reminded this CO of someone he had despised back in Viet Nam. Apparently that other officer would go to the seaward side of the ship and cower whenever they were providing NGFS.
This ensign never had a chance. The CO even told that story at the wardroom table, pointed at the new ensign, and said "You remind me of him." The CO then performed a partial-birth abortion on the ensign's career with fitreps accusing him of cowardice, even though there had been no combat, shipboard fires, or other opportunities to observe him.
On another ship in another ocean, I saw a department head who made a practice of not giving important information to a division officer he disliked, then telling the captain that he had and the subordinate just dropped the ball. So many others I have seen damned with faint praise to make a preferred officer look better.
The OER/Fitrep system is an open invitation to the unethical to practice favoritism, and the only safeguard -- if you want to call it that -- is the ethical sense of individual officers.
"Of course the board members are subjective, but I don't know how the system could be any more fair."
Well, let's not even look at "fairness." Let's just define the desired outcome as keeping and promoting the right officers. That goal could be advanced by giving performance in combat greater weight. Start the process by moving everyone who has awards for valor into the promotable group, followed by everyone who has performed satisfactorily in combat, and only then start looking at others...if there are any slots left.
The only other thing I can think of is something that can't be accomplished through fiat or regulation, and that is simply by demanding standards of conduct that make the military an inhospitable environment for office-politicking bean counters. That might not be possible, though.