"Rudy could not hold the party and he would not attract Reagan Dems back to the GOP column."
I'm thinking he would attract the Regan Dems....and thus would not be a disaster.
A large portion of the Reagan Dems vote on abortion. Rick Santorum got creamed in 2006 because the Dems ran a pro-lifer. If the GOP runs a pro-choice candidate, those Dems will not be tempted out of their party. And parts of the GOP base would probably stay home.
Add the pro WOT dems.....Rudy is much better than the pull out barking dogs... and there are a fair amount of dems that see that.