Frankly, I think he missed the boat after the 2004 election. He came back in on a wave of popularity, and millions of extra voters turned out for him. He had a lot of momentum. The Dems and their pundits were terrified. Then he did . . . nothing.
Oh, he put all his political capital on social security reform, and that predictably went nowhere. He wasted months and months while the press and the Dems pulled themselves together again, and his supporters lost heart. He has spent far too much time stroking the left and cozying up to them, which has gotten him exactly nowhere. They still hate his guts. But in the process, he managed to lose his base.
I don't see how he can pull it together now. It's too late. the only thing he can do is rally the Republicans in congress, prevent the Democrats from passing stupid bills, and make them look radical and stupid. But he's not doing that too terribly well, either.
A couple of basic political rules he never seemed to understand. The most basic of all: reward your friends and punish your enemies. Clinton understood that, and in spite of producing a new scandal every week he managed to ride the resulting waves of popularity. Bush seems to think that you win by rewarding your enemies and punishing your friends. No, it doesn't work that way.
Clinton punished his friends and rewarded his enemies. HE managed to stay popular at the cost of losing control of Congress and weakening the 'rat party in general.
You're right, sad to say. Bush never got over his 'new tone' naivete. He kept trying to cozy up to the 'Rats and they kicked him in the teeth every time he did and all along he kept p*ssing away support from his base as though it was bought and paid for and had nowhere else to go.