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Once immersed among conservatives I started to appreciate their logic on several subjects. I agreed with the Bush Doctrine immediately following September 11 but still clung to liberal social principles. Nevertheless, by listening to Conservatives more and reading more of the literature slowly over time I became a true believer. So I speak with experience when I say that converts to conservative ideology will come around surely (albeit slowly) if they are approached indirectly. If their beliefs structures are attacked head on they will most likely recoil and defend themselves like snakes. As Alexander Hamilton wrote in the Federalist papers, “Men often oppose a thing, merely because they have had no agency in planning it, or because it may have been planned by those whom they dislike.”

For this reason, contrary to conventional wisdom, a victory by Rudy Giuliani would strengthen even the socially conservative agenda in the long run.

Perhaps a more likely result would be to take the volume of the discussion down a few decibels. If a New York Republican wins and makes a nod in the direction of social conservatism, a lot of the noise from Northeasterners about Texas or Alabama and from Southerners about New York or Massachusetts dies out.

As to what the long-term effects would be, I can't begin to say. I doubt you'll see a final resolution of these culture wars either way. The drift on some questions is to the right (abortion), and on others (homosexuality, stem cells) to the left.

A bad President or candidate could lose things for his or her side, but there are limits to what a good one can do and how far a President can go even if he's committed to a cause. The question about Rudy is whether he'd been one step back and two steps forward for social conservatives or two steps back and one step forward.

I should add, that the other point the author is making is that social conservatives should forget about social issues per se, so as to not drive off more centrists seculars (who will not given the culture war stench be willing to consider other conservative ideas outside of those trenches), and just focus on SCOTUS nominations. Assuming that they believe Giuliani is solid on that issue, some will buy into that logic, and some will not.