Global wind energy markets continue to boom – 2006 another record year

GWEC ^ | 02/02/2007 15:13 | GWEC

[alnitak]

Industry delivered 32% of annual market growth despite supply chain difficulties.

The booming wind energy markets around the world exceeded expectations in 2006, with the sector experiencing yet another record year. On the day of the publication of the 4th Assessment Report on Climate Change by the IPCC, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) released its annual figures for 2006. These figures, which include wind energy developments in more than 70 countries around the world, show that the year saw the installation of 15,197 megawatts (MW), taking the total installed wind energy capacity to 74,223 MW, up from 59,091 MW in 2005.

Despite constraints facing supply chains for wind turbines, the annual market for wind continued to increase at the staggering rate of 32% following the 2005 record year, in which the market grew by 41%. This development shows that the global wind energy industry is responding fast to the challenge of manufacturing at the required level, and manages to deliver sustained growth.

In terms of economic value, the wind energy sector has now become firmly installed as one of the important players in the energy markets, with the total value of new generating equipment installed in 2006 reaching €18 billion, or US$23 billion.

The countries with the highest total installed capacity are Germany (20,621 MW), Spain (11,615 MW), the USA (11,603 MW), India (6,270 MW) and Denmark (3,136). Thirteen countries around the world can now be counted among those with over 1000 MW of wind capacity, with France and Canada reaching this threshold in 2006.

In terms of new installed capacity in 2006, the US continued to lead with 2,454 MW, followed by Germany (2,233 MW), India (1,840 MW), Spain (1,587 MW), China (1,347 MW) and France (810 MW). This development shows that new players such as France and China are gaining ground.

“The tremendous growth in 2006 shows that decision makers are starting to take seriously the benefits that wind energy development can bring. However, we must not forget that wind energy is a new technology that needs robust policy frameworks and political commitment to fulfill its full potential,” said Arthouros Zervos, Chairman of GWEC.

Europe is still leading the market with 48,545 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2006, representing 65% of the global total. In 2006, the European wind capacity grew by 19%, producing approximately 100 TWh of electricity, equal to 3.3% of total EU electricity consumption in an average wind year.

“While Germany and Spain still represent 50% of the EU market, we are seeing a healthy trend towards less reliance on these two countries. In the EU, 3,755 MW were installed outside of Germany, Spain and Denmark in 2006. In 2002, this figure still stood at only 680 MW,” said Christian Kjaer, the European Wind Energy Association’s (EWEA) CEO. “The figures clearly confirm that a second wave of European countries is investing in wind power.”

Despite the continuing growth in Europe, the general trend shows that the sector is gradually becoming less reliant on a few key markets, and other regions are starting to catch up with Europe. The growth in the European market in 2006 accounted for about half of the total new capacity, down from nearly three quarters in 2004.

Asia has experienced the strongest increase in installed capacity outside of Europe, with an addition of 3,679 MW, taking the continent over 10,600 MW. In 2006, the continent grew by 53% and accounted for 24% of new installations. The strongest market here remains India with over 1,840 MW of new installed capacity, which takes its total figure up to 6,270 MW.

China more than doubled its total installed capacity by installing 1,347 MW of wind energy in 2006, a 70% increase from last year’s figure. This brings China up to 2,604 MW of capacity, making it the sixth largest market world wide. The Chinese market was boosted by the country’s new Renewable Energy Law, which entered into force on 1 January 2006.

“Thanks to the Renewable Energy law, the Chinese market has grown substantially in 2006, and this growth is expected to continue and speed up. According to the list of approved projects and those under construction, more than 1,500 MW will be installed in 2007. The goal for wind power in China by the end of 2010 is 5,000 MW, which according to our estimations will already be reached well ahead of time,” said Li Junfeng of the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA).

22% of the world’s new wind capacity was installed in North America, where the annual market increased by a third in 2005, gaining momentum in both the US and Canada.

For the second year running, the US wind energy industry installed nearly 2,500 MW, making it the country with the most new wind power.

“Strong growth figures in the US prove that wind is now a mainstream option for new power generation,“ said Randy Swisher, President of the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). “Wind’s exponential growth reflects the nation’s increasing demand for clean, safe and domestic energy, and continues to attract both private and public sources of capital. New generating capacity worth US$4 billion was installed in 2006, billing wind as one of the largest sources of new power generation in the country – second only to natural gas – for the second year in a row.”

Canada also had a record year, with the installed capacity more than doubling from 683 MW in 2005 to 1459 MW at the end of 2006. “Wind energy is an emerging Canadian success story and 2006 will be remembered as the year that our country first began to seriously capture its economic and environmental benefits,” said Robert Hornung, President of the Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA). “Canada’s is on the cusp of a wind energy boom as provincial governments are now targeting to have a minimum of 10,000 MW of installed wind energy capacity in place by 2015.”

Growth in the relatively young African and Middle Eastern market picked up considerably in 2006, with 172 MW of new installed capacity, bringing the total up to 441 MW. This represents a 63% growth, and should be seen as a promising signs for future developments. The main countries experiencing growth are Egypt (230 MW, up from 145 MW), Morocco (124 MW, up from 64 MW) and Iran (48 MW, up from 23 MW).

Compared to previous years, the Australian market only experienced slow growth in 2006. "While 2006 saw only 109 MW installed bring total capacity to 817 MW, the Australian market has been given a new lease of life with the introduction of state based renewable energy targets providing a more positive outlook for 2007," said Dominique La Fontaine, CEO of the Australian Wind Energy Association (Auswind).

“As security of energy supply and climate change are ranging high on the political agendas of the world’s governments, wind energy has already become a mainstream energy source in many countries around the world. Wind energy is clean and fuel-free, which makes it the most attractive solution to the world’s energy challenges,” said Arthouros Zervos, Chairman of GWEC.

[alnitak]

The top 3 graphs are from the GWEC's PDF (follow the link), the last is mine. Total represents the total installed base in any year, Delta is the change in total from previous year to current year expressed in absolute and percentage terms.

Two stories have featured prominently in the trade press over the last year : the US boom and the coming "China surge". Well it would appear that the US boom is a little over-sold, because new installations in the US were essentially flat (2006 = 2454MW vs 2424MW in the previous year). On the other hand, the China surge seems to be here already, with China joining the select group of countries which have installed more than 1GW in a single year. In 2004 China installed 197MW, in 2005 it was 496MW and in 2006 it was 1344 MW.

The pair (China, India) are now installing the same as (US, Canada) and are growing faster. (India has sustained 40%+ per annum growth for the last 3 years). It will be interesting to see whether this rapid pace of Asian installation persists for the next couple of years. If it does then Asia could easily become the most important market for wind turbines in the world, with obvious implications for investors.

Global installed wind capacity is now equivalent to 36 Hoover Dams.

[alnitak]

Ping for you Dave.

[DungeonMaster]

Global installed wind capacity is now equivalent to 36 Hoover Dams.

It's getting pretty close to being equal to 50 nukes like the one we have in Iowa.

[alnitak]

Not sure how big your nuke is DungeonMaster, but they generally have much higher capacity factors (90%) than wind plant. Which is why I posted the line about the Hoover dam - it has a capacity factor of only 26% :-)

Global nuke capacity is about 300GW, for wind to equal that in electricity production we will need about 900GW of installed base - quite a way to go yet.

[DungeonMaster]

Not sure how big your nuke is DungeonMaster, but they generally have much higher capacity factors (90%) than wind plant. Which is why I posted the line about the Hoover dam - it has a capacity factor of only 26% :-)

Good man! I calculated that in my post. Ours is a 585 mw, if I had just gone with nameplate power comparison I'd have said 125 nukes like the one we have in Iowa.

Global nuke capacity is about 300GW, for wind to equal that in electricity production we will need about 900GW of installed base - quite a way to go yet.

Yes, and I've very eager to get there. I live in CR and we are the proud home of the new ClipperWind assembly plant! I believe it is here because of my prayers for windpower to advance.

[alnitak]

The European Wind Energy Association's press release on 2006 can be found here.

[JDOH]

"...Hoover dam - it has a capacity factor of only 26%..."


So you're saying Hoover Dam must generate a gross 100Mw for a net sendout of 26Mw? Are all hydro's that innefficient?

If that's the case, then you're also saying a wind turbine must gross 300watts for every 100 watts it sends to the grid? I guess I need to learn more about wind turbines, I didn't think they required that much power to maintain themselves...

Or am I confused, per normal? ;^)

Just curious.

[RightWhale]

The wind hasn't stirred in Fairbanks since September. The sun has also been lacking.

[alnitak]

You're confused :-) Here is how it goes. Capacity factor is nothing to do with losses/efficiency in the actual generation equipment, rather it is a measure of what percentage of time a particular plant is actually being used to generate electricity.

A particular generating plant has a "nameplate capacity". This is measured in MW. For the Hoover Dam it is 2074MW.

If it were generating 100% of the time it would generate 2074 * 24 * 365 MWh (Megawatt-hours) of electricity per year. That comes to 18,168,240 MWh per year.

Now we know that it actually generates 4,800,000 MWh per year on average. So the capacity factor of the Hoover dam is

4,800,000/18,168,240 = 26%



Source for the Hoover dam: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/hooverdam/faqs/powerfaq.html



If

[Balding_Eagle]

When it says TOTAL CAPACITY, does that represent the average of 30% actual production output? Or does that represent the 'nameplate' 100% output?

[RussP]

OK, will someone please tell me why these wind turbine installations are rated in terms of *power* (GW) rather than *energy* (GJ) production? Power is the rate of energy production per unit of time -- or rather, it is the *potential* rate of energy production per unit of time.

So if we have 74 GW of wind power potential, that is very misleading if they hardly ever produce at peak power because the wind is not blowing at exactly the optimum speed and direction.

My understanding of wind power is that it is very finicky. If the wind is too slow, you don't get much power. If it is too fast, they need to be turned off. We covered this a bit in a graduate level class I took about 20 years ago on helicopters.

The bottom line is that I suspect this article is very misleading. It makes wind power appear to be competitive with nuclear power, but I doubt that is true.

By the way, see http://RussP.us/nucpower.htm

[hadaclueonce]

"When it says TOTAL CAPACITY, does that represent the average of 30% actual production output? Or does that represent the 'nameplate' 100% output?"

Good point here in Texas they generate at night when there is no load. When it gets hot in the daytime, they shut down.

Wind generation would not exist without the BIG tax breaks they get.

[Uncledave]

Renewable Energy Ping

Please Freep Mail me if you'd like on/off

[alnitak]

74GW of nameplate capacity at the moment. Wind capacity factor varies per site, but 25%-30% is typical, I think.

[Balding_Eagle]

There was a huge study done a year or two ago on capacity which covered thousands of wind generators around the world, both land and water based.

The land based wind sets averaged about 29% output (nameplate vs actual) and the sea based a little over 31 or 32%. That included all downtime, normal maintenance, breakdowns, no wind, and anything else that stopped them.

I'm not a big proponent of wind, but it is interesting to see how it is growing.

I'm also opposed to any subsidies (other than a tax break, which isn't a subsidy, just a relief of governmental punishment for financial success) so that the true financial appeal can show itself.

[beef]

These are positive steps toward solving number of problems. Wind can't provide all of our electricity needs, but it's piece of the puzzle. Now we just need to get the enviro wackos out of the way. We need wind mills off Cape Cod. NOW.

[hadaclueonce]

My concern is reliability. No one can count on the wind blowing so other units must be on line ready to pick up load when the wind stops. Yes those units on line have to be burning expensive fuel at a uneconomic level to be ready to pick up the load. So we end up spending money to back up a source that may or not be there in the next minute.

[theymakemesick]

"I'm not a big proponent of wind, but it is interesting to see how it is growing."

I like it as a supplemental energy source, each dollar of energy that it generates is $.50 that doesn't go to the middle east. For energy production, you just can't beat fossil fuel and nuclear. If Al Moron's farce of a movie has any positive effect, I hope it is the rebirth of nuclear power production in the USA, not for the "carbon neutral" crap but to keep our dollars away from the muzzies.

"I'm also opposed to any subsidies (other than a tax break, which isn't a subsidy, just a relief of governmental punishment for financial success) so that the true financial appeal can show itself."

Well said.

[sphinx]

Wind generation would not exist without the BIG tax breaks they get.

Slightly overstated but the gist is right. However, the cost of wind power has been reduced by 90% over the last 20 years. That has brought it into the realm of possibility. It is already competitive without subsidy (as is solar) for an increasing number of off-grid applications. In fact, I have been told that some rural electric coops have run the numbers and concluded that it would be cheaper to abandon some existing power lines, thus saving on maintenance, and install distributed wind. For grid linked applications wind is competitive with gas fired turbines. Nuclear is still champ, of course, but unfortunately we're not building any.

Bottom line, large scale wind is still subsidy dependent for grid linked applications but the subsidy cost is not outlandish. I'm all for building more nuclear plants but in the meantime wind is a good hedging option, especially when you start factoring in probable carbon taxes or other CO2 mitigation expenses in the intermediate future.

[hadaclueonce]

How do you propose to back up the instantanous demand when the wind does not blow?

As a Reliability Coordinator, my only option is to shed load. Your AC, your pc and your lights, all off until I can order more generators on line. Want to sign up for interruptable rates?

The sad thing is that you cannot store electricity. In a perfect world you could. But not in this one. Pumped storage. Damns that you can pump water back into at night would be great. Pump motor load when the wind blows, generation when there is load.

Wind generation will never be the solution.