If the overwhelming majority of Republican voters are really conservative then how can this be?
Prepare yourself for a shock -- Republican nominations are usually not decided by ideology.
We nominated Ike because after twenty years out of power we were desperate for a winner.
Nixon became the nominee primarily because he was the Veep.
Goldwater beat Rocky largely on ideology and then got his ass kicked by LBJ.
Nixon came back and beat the left (Rocky) and right (RR) in 1968.
1976 and 1980 had some ideological components, but Ford was veep in 1976 and RR was clearly the best campaigner in 1980. Remember that GHWB was leading RR until Mr. Green cut off the microphone.
Bush beat Dole in 1988 and nobody would accuse either of them of being conservatives.
Dole won the 1996 nomination on seniority and because it was his turn. A good man, a bad POTUS candidate to run against Bubba.
GWB defeated McCain for a variety of reasons -- partly ideology, and partly because then (as now) many people just don't trust McCain.
The plain fact is that the Republican Party just does not nominate dark horses. In fact, except for 1964 there has been a Nixon, Dole or Bush on every Republican Ticket since 1948. The Party goes with known quantities who have paid their dues, not unknown Congresscritters like Brownback or Hunter or Tancredo.
IMHO Gingrich has too much baggage. I think it is likely to be McCain, Romney or Giuliani. I don't trust McCain as C-in-C, and Romney is just not as good an option as Giuliani.
Unless a viable option comes up in the next year, Rudy is the clear choice. He is clearly the candidate the 'rats would most fear. No, he isn't a conservative -- but I don't see a conservative out there with a realistic chance of winning.
Spot on!
Actually, he isn't. Top Democrat strategists worry far more about Romney, especially if he can push past the senseless evangelical opposition.
Top Democrat strategists know they have nothing to play against Romney except the religion card. Ted Kennedy's goons and the Massachusett Democrat Party machinery spent months and tens of millions of dollars trying to uncover weaknesses in Romeny's personal and professional life and came up empty.
Rudy, on the other hand, is dragging an 18-wheeler full of infidelities, poor judgment, and radical left wing tendencies. And the Democrats have nearly a complete inventory of all of them.