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One of the consistent problems on FR is the idea that most of the american electorate is as conservative as FR is. It's nowhere close, and the more narrow the Freeper conventional wisdom gets, the more it deviates from having a clear evaluation of the general electorate.

You're absolutely right about that. America isn't Free Republic. Most people, though they may have conservative values and instincts, aren't conservatives per se. I believe that we are facing a different situation than in 2000 and 2004. Americans in general are disenchanted and their patience is running thin, i.e the war in Iraq and problems at home.

Conservatives sat it out last November to teach the GOP a lesson, and if their demands aren't met in 2008, they will teach the GOP a bigger lesson.

Jim Nussle describes best this point in the letter he sent to Rich Lowry from the National Review, let me post an excerpt:

“Perfect” has become the enemy of the “good”, and we saw that borne out during this past November’s elections. I am hopeful that our Party will avoid needless debates over a non-existent perfect candidate.
It is true that Mayor Giuliani and I don’t agree on every issue. My support for a person who doesn’t see eye to eye with me on all issues doesn’t mean that I am turning my back on those beliefs. But our country is at a crossroads and we cannot forsake progress for perfection.
I have chosen to support Mayor Giuliani because I believe we need to embrace the ideals and the values that unite us. It is the only way we can successfully move forward as both a Party and a country.
Today, America needs to make progress in so many difficult fronts. While addressing challenges with philosophical absolutes makes for good rhetoric, it oftentimes achieves little by way of results.