The slight ups-and-downs you note are part of the Holocene's remarkable climate stability. "Climate stability" means relatively small changes in climate. Best illustrated with an image:
The section in the far right-hand "column" is the Holocene. The figure below expands it.
Starting 11,000 years ago -- that's climate stability.
Why would freshwater resources be reduced? We have advanced recycling capabilities right now and, as noted, desalination techniques.
Both require energy and are expensive for the places that are going to need them. One of the main concerns is shrinking mountain glaciers, which supply water to a lot of people.
Do you have actual sources for these "scholarly papers"? I am afraid I don't have a high tolerance for argument by intimidation.
I wasn't trying to be intimidating. Here's some:
deMenocal, Science, 2001: Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene. I can only give you the abstract:
"Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change." (full article is subscription only)
Fagan, "The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization" (book, search Amazon)
Hodell et al., Nature, 1995, "Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization"
This isn't a paper, but it is easily available online:
Start reading at "But at the end of this deglaciation..."
NOW, there is one school of thought that climate change also forced urbanization. Could be true, but there is good evidence that organized societies suffered considerably, and sometimes collapsed, when climate went bad unexpectedly. And there's always the example of Easter Island, too.
I have been hearing about excessive heat from global warming for 19 years now and hardwoods still grow in the upper Midwest, winter still occurs, rivers and lakes still freeze, rains come in the warmer seasons, crops grow, people live on barrier islands and along coastlines and commoditties still exist and are utilized.
Did you know that there is a defined trend of lakes and rivers freezing later in the autumn and earlier in the spring over the past 150 years?
Warming may threaten Vermont maples
"McNulty said virtually every one of the computer programs that scientists use to predict how a changing climate will affect the Earth show that sugar maples will essentially disappear from Vermont by the end of this century." (But it's good for Quebec)