Posted on 01/27/2007 7:55:27 PM PST by NormsRevenge
BEIRUT, Lebanon - After this week's deadly violence in Lebanon, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah finds itself in a corner. It remains determined to unseat the U.S.-backed government, but if it pushes too hard, it could be blamed for throwing the country into civil war.
It now faces the question of whether to reconsider its strategy of street protests that have sparked the violence. A senior Hezbollah official said Friday the Shiite movement was studying what steps to take next.
"Things have taken a dangerous turn," said Mahmoud Komati, who blamed "government militias" for the violence, saying they were using guns in their confrontation with Hezbollah-led protesters over the past few days.
"The street option has become dangerous," Komati said.
He said his Shiite Muslim group will give the government a few days to respond to its demands — more than one-third of seats in Prime Minister Fuad Saniora's Cabinet, enough to veto its decisions, and early elections — before deciding its next move.
"All options are possible," he said. But he said Hezbollah's next steps would be "well-studied and peaceful."
Three days of violence this week stunned Lebanese, making all too real their fears that the long political crisis was pushing the country back into civil war. The turmoil began Tuesday, when a Hezbollah-led general strike turned into clashes with government supporters around the country. Six people were killed in the week's rioting.
Calm returned Friday after an overnight curfew following a deadly university riot between Shiite and Sunni Muslim students. For now, Hezbollah leaders, as well as those of pro-government forces, are urging their supporters to stay off the streets.
But both sides remain entrenched in their positions. Saniora's U.S.-backed government has painted the Hezbollah-led opposition's demand for a greater share of government as an attempted coup by the Shiite group's patrons, Iran and Syria.
After the violence, even some Hezbollah supporters are grumbling that its methods are leading to an explosion of Lebanon's delicate sectarian balance.
"Hezbollah is in a bit of a dilemma because its main fear now is how it will be seen in its own community, in its own party," said Timur Goksel, a university professor and former U.N. spokesman.
The crisis began in November when six ministers loyal to Hezbollah and its allies quit Saniora's Cabinet after talks with the government broke down. Then on Dec. 1, opposition supporters began a sit-in in downtown Beirut in front of the government that continues to the day. But the government has not budged.
Hezbollah has been criticized for taking the country hostage just for a couple of seats in the Cabinet. But the issue runs deeper and has to do with the group's survival and the direction of Lebanon, which Hezbollah says Saniora has taken too close to the United States.
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an analyst specializing in Hezbollah, says the group cannot back down or else it will be seen as having lost. But continuing its campaign in the volatile streets is not an option. "The opposition has been weakened by the street violence and rioting ... in terms of what options it has left," she said.
Hezbollah's insistence on a greater say in Lebanon's government springs from two events that shook Lebanon during the past two years — the 2005 withdrawal of Syrian troops that once dominated the country, and last summer's Israel-Hezbollah war.
After the withdrawal of its patron Syria under U.S. pressure, the longtime guerrilla group was forced to plunge deeper into politics and elections, winning a dozen seats in parliament. It joined the Cabinet — despite its domination by anti-Syrian politicians — believing it had to protect its interests, which until then had been looked after by the Syrian presence.
Hezbollah soon became a powerful political force, representing Lebanon's Shiites. Its guerrillas kept their weapons, ignoring U.N. demands for disarmament and arguing that Israel still posed a danger to Lebanon, even though it withdrew its occupation forces from south Lebanon in 2000.
Iran quickly filled the vacuum left by Syria's departure, reportedly stepping up its supply of weapons and money to the group.
Hezbollah's relations with Saniora's government worsened after Hezbollah guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid July 12, sparking a devastating Israeli retaliation.
The monthlong war drew Saniora's government dramatically closer to the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited and called Saniora an ally along with other moderate Arab states. The war ended with U.N. peacekeepers deployed in Hezbollah's southern Lebanon stronghold and fueled demands in the West and among some Lebanese politicians for Hezbollah's disarmament.
Hezbollah officials said the war's results made their insistence on a greater share of government powers even more crucial for the group.
Saad-Ghorayeb said Hezbollah is particularly worried that the U.S. will pressure the government to force the guerrillas' disarmament.
"What Hezbollah now, more than ever seeks to do, is to confront the United States politically and that's why political power is so important to Hezbollah. This is the ultimate goal: to get Lebanon out of the U.S. orbit," said Saad-Ghorayeb.
According to the Lebanese constitution, Shiites, the country's largest single sect with an estimated 1.2 million of the 4 million population, are only entitled to 21 percent of parliament and Cabinet seats. To ensure greater say, they are now demanding more seats for their allies.
Hezbollah's predicament now is a sharp contrast to the widespread popularity it gained — even among Sunnis in Lebanon and around the Arab world — for its tough resistance to Israel during the summer war.
"Everyone supports Hezbollah when it's a resistance, but when it starts to pursue political power, it loses Sunni Arab support," said Saad-Ghorayeb. "They're afraid of Iraqi-inspired Shiite power grab here."
Internal suicide would be a GREAT strategy.
notice how the MSM always starts these articles in the first sentence by refering to the current governments title of "US-backed".
As if the US controls everything behind the scenes.
The know how to throw a really messy block party. Other than that...not much.
The turds already practice that but the problem is they take innocent lives in the process.
The article is so Hizb'allah-sympathetic, it's impossible to discuss seriously... and it needs a BARF ALERT!
High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. or WOT [War on Terror]
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Perhaps we should toss a bunch of money at them.
It always seems to have worked in the past. /sarc
Are they saying negotiations thru violence has taken a bad turn?
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