Posted on 01/26/2007 3:41:36 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Defensive Visit to India
Russian President Vladimir Putin began a visit to India yesterday. Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov was especially interested in several intrigues in Russian-Indian relations, but none of them went beyond the bounds of that.
There were several intrigues surrounding the arrival of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Indian capital of Delhi. I was interested in whether or not the Indians had signed an agreement on participation in the creation of a fifth generation of heavy fighter plane. I was truly interested. I couldn't rest until I found out why a country that had recovered its place in the world couldn't create the jet without them.
In addition, Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov's report from the Indian city of Bangalore that the Indians may be interested in a project to develop the Sakhalin 3 oil deposit interested everybody. He made that announcement just before the president's arrival, sending a shockwave through the Russian and world petroleum industry, and especially the Chinese petroleum industry, which also has its eye on Sakhalin 3.
It's 23 degrees C (73 degrees F) in Delhi. It is as dirty on the grounds of the presidential palace as on the streets. On the lawn, a more-or-less exact copy of the lawn at American House, where journalists' briefings are held, the same beggars are lined up as on the Delhi streets. When they announce that Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are about to pass by to sign their international agreements in the open air, they get up, brush themselves off and move closer to the microphone, and suddenly I realize that they are Indian journalists. And I realize that even Russian journalists, not known for their business dress, look good by comparison.
One of the Russian journalists asks what the main areas of economic cooperation the leaders consider most important and can the Indian state debt to Russia be invested in the Indian economy.
Putin answers by saying that the first tanker of Sakhalin oil sailed into an Indian port last December. It was obvious what area he thought was most important. Several times later he repeated that he hopes that the Indian debt will be invested in the construction of joint ventures for oil production and the transport of Russian natural gas and oil to India.
Putin did not mention that the same thing could be done in Russia. Ivanov's proposal of a joint enterprise with the Indians to develop Sakhalin 3 thus appeared either overstated or early-stated.
What really happened was that Rosneft and the India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. signed a memorandum yesterday on the creation of two working groups on the oil production and refining. It was even mentioned in the joint statement by Presidents Putin and Singh.
An Indian journalist asked Putin “at what stage is the promised Russia-India-China trilateral axis, thanks to which the world may, as in the days of the USSR, become, if not multipolar, at least bipolar once again.
Putin responded with unexpected diplomacy and in his voice was heard the pain and hope of a trilateral axis along which the leaders of the People's Republic of China, India and Russia could walk like the razor's edge. He said that that interesting formation has a future because those are the countries that will account for world economic growth in the next few years and it would be logical for them to stick together.
He was not so diplomatic when asked about his attitude toward China's test of an anti-satellite missile. He said that space should be free of weapons but “along with that, China is not the first country to conduct such tests.” He was insinuating that the United States had conducted such tests back in the 1980s.
“There is no need to let the genie out of the bottle,” he concluded, obviously meaning that then the Chinese wouldn't launch rockets.
Singh was an ardent fan of the idea of investing the Indian state debt in joint projects.
We have already agreed,” he said, “that we need to use such methods as investment in the construction of multifunctional transport planes.”
Later Sergey Chemezov, head of Rosoboronexport, the Russian state arms exporter, confirmed that the Indians have signed an agreement to allot $30 million on the project, with the money going toward the state debt.
In addition, a joint statement was issued by the presidents of India and Russia on cooperation in the peaceful testing of atomic energy.
“I was at a facility that is being built in Kudankulam,” Federal Atomic Energy Agency (Rosatom) head Sergey Kirienko enthusiastically told journalists immediately after the two leaders' press conference. “Everybody is working! The framework has just been built. I think we will deliver the fuel in the first half of 2007. We reached an agreement on the construction of four more blocks at Kudankulam,” each of which is to cost $1.5 billion.
Kirienko was not the least perturbed by the fact that an international group of atomic suppliers had imposed limits on supplies to third countries, among them India. He was certain that an exception would be made for India that it has earned through the faultless observation of all regulations of international control organizations.
The last remaining intrigue is that of the fifth-generation fighter jet. Before a meeting between Putin and members of the Indian and Russian business community, I asked Sukhoi head Mikhail Pogosyan why he needed outsiders for the project and how much money they would give. That seemed to be the main question for the Russians.
“Think about people who establish families,” he said, speaking quickly. “You ask them how much money they are investing in their family. And they don't answer, of course, because the have no agreement on paper.”
It follows that that should be applied to the fifth-generation fighter. And journalists are going to through it, his baby, out with the bathwater by asking too many questions about it.
“There are no agreements! And still they ask them! You shouldn't butt into their lives!” Pogosyan exclaimed.
Then he settled down a little and explained that the details of the deal, which will probably be concluded before the end of the year, remain unclear. But the use of money from the Indian debt in the project is being considered.
“The main thing is that it is already clear which Russians the Indians will work with,” Pogosyan added. “They had said that MiG could participate.”
So it is completely understood that the Indians will make the fighter with Pogosyan's company.
Rosoboronexport's Chemezov confirmed Pogosyan's statement a few minutes later and finally explained why Russia needs the Indians in the deal.
“It works out very difficultly financially for us to do this alone,” Chemezov admitted. “It is simpler for us to invite a partner in. And India, to be honest, suits us better than all the rest. They are our friends, in the sense of better friends than the others. Including that we don't expect anything unpleasant from them in the future.”
Then Chemezov said slowly, “The Tors have been shipped to Iran.”
He said that the installations were delivered to that country in the last two months of last year. Apparently Rosoboronexport considered the operation a big success. Never mind that Russia has been fewer friends now than before or that U.S. sanctions against Rosoboronexport are unlikely to be cancelled for a long time to come now. Not only that, a high-placed U.S. State Department source said that new sanctions could be placed on Rosoboronexport. That inspires laughter among high-placed Russians. You can't impose the same sanctions on the same company twice, they say.
Indian businessmen were eager at their meeting with Putin. One of them admitted that the most tempting items they had for Russia were “plastic products.” He said that after noting critically that they main trade items between Russia and India were hydrocarbons and weapons.
Putin responded with the suggestion that India become more involved in the market for raw diamonds. “We just canceled quotas on unprocessed diamonds,” the Russian president noted. “In that connection, we will welcome direct contracts between foreign companies and ALROSA.”
The Indian businessmen seem not to have comprehended the president's generosity. All their decisiveness went into the fifth-generation fighter jet. A high-placed source in the Russian Defense Ministry told Kommersant late yesterday evening that the Indians thought for a long time before agreeing to work with Sukhoi instead of MiG. It took them three years. Finally, Russian negotiators told them that Sukhoi would have its first fifth-generation plane off the ground in 2009 and they had to run to jump on the bandwagon. “Even so that plane will cost us something like $4 billion,” the source said. “And financial aid is really needed.”
The source said that the fifth-generation fighter could only be created today in Russia or the U.S. Europe, the EADS concern, could do it too, theoretically, but “it is not capable of organizing it.”
That means the family needs a prenuptial agreement in case of divorce.
Not very flattering to the Indian Press.
We have already agreed,” he said, “that we need to use such methods as investment in the construction of multifunctional transport planes.”
India just signed an agreement to buy C-130Js. I'm sure EADS would be delighted to sell India some A400Ms as well.
It took them three years. Finally, Russian negotiators told them that Sukhoi would have its first fifth-generation plane off the ground in 2009 and they had to run to jump on the bandwagon. “Even so that plane will cost us something like $4 billion,” the source said. “And financial aid is really needed.”
So Sukhoi has already won the order over the F/A-18, F-16, and Eurofighter?
If it is true, there is something humane and endearing in that. It means that Indians do not have fake, PR "sweep under the rug", set the "Potemkin village" attitude. You get what you see and you see what you get.
In the Western country the beggars and homeless would be removed from the sight like a dirt for such occasion. BTW, in India the homeless beggar might be a member of the upper class humbly practicing his religion. You never know.
Let's remember first that Kommersant hates Putin & everything he does so there whole view of things is shaped through that.
About the talk of a joint transport jet-they are for replacing the 100+ AN-32s in Indian service as well as other types like the Avro 748s.This product will almost certainly be cheaper than the C-130 & A-400.About the purchase of C-130s,these are for the specific use of India's special forces.Only the Herc fits the bill for that-as of now.
About the 5th Gen fighter,it's a totally different contract than the one in which the EF-2000 & SuperHornet are competing for.The Latter is to replace the Mig-21/23s & early Jaguar variants which are being axed.
India has long had close relations with the USSR and Russia, going back to the time of Indira Gandhi. In particular, they have had defense relations with Russia as a counterbalance to the threat from China, which invaded Tibet and has several times chewed off piece of disputed territory from India.
India now has much warmer relations with America, but they would frankly be foolish to drop their relations with Russia, because America doesn't have a very good record of supporting its south Asian allies over the long haul--thanks to the Democrats and peaceniks. Although they have managed to develop ties to the clintons as well as to Bush.
Putin is a big-time supporter and enabler of Muslim terrorists, which can't make the Indians all that happy. Then again, after India turned to Russia, we have been a long time ally of Pakistan, and that can't please them either.
In other words, it's a very complicated situation. Probably they will stick with the Sukhois for now. Maybe they'll gradually supplement them, but I doubt they'll drop them. And it's awkward to run an airforce with two complete sets of spare parts.
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