Problem is that Rudy is a Northeast Liberal, but he won't carry any of the liberal Northeast states. Not even New York.
Rino udy is unelectable. He will split the base of the party and drive many social conservatives and evangelicals to stay home or go third party.
Problem is that Rudy is a Northeast Liberal, but he won't carry any of the liberal Northeast states. Not even New York.
Exactly, Hilliary's candidacy takes NY of the table for Rudy, that leaves NH in the NE, and Rudy may not be able to carry states like Arkansas.
Now if we had a Republican House and Senate, with large majorities then "maybe" on Rudy then again maybe not.
the polls have him winning in NJ, PA, NY and CT. I think he'd win all 4 against anyone but Hillary, and even then it would be close, a lot closer than any other candidate. don't underestimate the italian factor in states like NJ, RI, CT, PA and NY.
By comparison, Mitt Romney is getting blown out 57-32 by Barack Obama in MA. His home state. For reference, no one has won the WH and lost their home state since Wilson in 1916, and he's the only one in the last 150 years. So in a state where he was the Governor for 4 years, he get's almost doubled up by a guy that could walk into Fanueil Hall unrecognized a few months ago and has been in the Senate all of two years. If Mitt is that far behind in MA, where he was fairly unpopular by the end of his term, it's not a good sign.
We can decide to fall on our sword and go with a Goldwater ideological purity and suffer the consequences. As it stands right now, Rudy and McCain are the only 2 GOP candidates I can see giving us a chance. Things can change, and I hope they do, and that's what the primaries are for.
But, if Rudy or McCain does win the primaries, I'd hate to see a repeat of '92 and have a bunch of holier than thou types prove thir point by giving us eight more years of Bill and Hillary Clinton in the White House, to be almost guaranteed by 8 years of Barack and Michele Obama.
I'd hope that once the general rolls around, we remember the 11th Commandment and ask ourselves WWRD? Would he stay home and put Bill and Hillary back in power?
The point is,
Problem is that Rudy is a Northeast Liberal, but he won't carry any of the liberal Northeast states. Not even New York.
Running against whom?
Rudy may very well win in states like New Hampshire or New Jersey or Pennsylvania or Delaware that Bush had to write off in 2004.
In any case, though, that's the standard way parties operate. Bill Clinton was a Southerner who couldn't carry that many Southern states, but he demonstrated that in addition to winning the strongly Democratic states in the Northeast, he could also take swing states. So if Rudy carries the red states and can prevail in states like Ohio and Florida, he wins.
I don't know if it will work. Maybe they'll be conservative stay-at-homes and defections to third parties. Maybe people will think "He can't even carry his home state" and write Giuliani off. Maybe Rudy's negatives are so high that Republicans will go with more of a family man, like Romney.
But a Giuliani nomination wouldn't be out of the question. It's the sort of move Democrats have been doing (picking Southerners to crack open the more conservative Middle West) for some time.
" ... he won't carry any of the liberal Northeast states. Not even New York."
What Republican would? Not that I'm convinced of our premise, but the problem would be if he were to lose southern and midwestern/plains states for the GOP. I don't think he would. Let's give credit to people in those heartland states for understanding the Number One issue of our time, terrorism. Some in the NE Liberal states might even understand that one. (not that I'm counting on it)
Any Democrat will be more liberal than Rudy on 'social issues.' The single issue folks may choose to go third party to make a stand and, like they did in 2006 by giving us a Democrat Congress, give us a Democrat president.