You may be overlooking, to some extent, the number of projects in current stages of development, including new refineries already under construction and at least 10 upgrader units in various forms of either construction, engineering or procurement.
Current projects could very easily double or triple the output in the next two years. Combine this with expansions (not new technology) of existing facilities and the five fold increase is entirely possible.
In Nov. 2005 I saw a report that the money scheduled then, to be spent in Alberta, was estimated at $10 billion USD.
You greatly overestimate how much production those plants are going to produce. It is going to take nine years to almost triple, if they can get the equipment, permits and labor.
Oil sands take over center stage
Conference Board of Canada bets on C$105B in upstream, upgrader spending over 10 years; by 2008 annual spending at C$15 billion; worker shortfall could hit 350,000 by 2025
And that doesn’t include the billions of dollars of planned oil sands pipelines within Alberta and from the province to the United States and British Columbia coast.
The red-hot energy sector is creating demand for head office employment in Calgary, which has climbed from 11,000 to 19,400 since the turn of the century, beating Canada’s three largest cities — Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.
Conference board deputy chief economist Paul Darby said the job demand is “going to get worse before it gets better,” estimating that Alberta could have a shortfall of a staggering 350,000 workers by 2025.
The major squeeze is expected in 2008 and 2009 when the oil sands expansion will peak.
I think you left out a zero, or that is only for one year of projects.