its pretty easy to figure out the equation here.
If a Dem wins in 2008, Roe will not be overturned for the next 25 years. That's an iron clad guarantee. All the lib SCOTUS members will retire during the period of Dem control, and the 5 votes for Roe will be retained.
most freepers don't like Rudy, and don't trust McCain on social issues. OK, that's fine. If you'd like to have a GUARANTEE that Roe will stand for the next 25 years, send someone up there like Brownback to get slaughtered in 2008.
Why is it assumed that Rudy or McCain can win and Brownback or Hunter cannot? Does that mean the pro abort repubs will not vote for social conservative? Thereby letting Hillary win?
Amen.
This calculus on Justices is exactly right.
George Bush will not have the opportunity permanently to replace another Justice. Were any Justice to die (retirement is inconceivable) during the balance of the Bush Administration, the Democrats will vote down any replacement. A recess appointee could serve only for a year or so.
Every Democratic candidate for President is fully committed to appointing Supreme Court Justices who are vocally and unequivocally committed to maintaining Roe v. Wade. Such appointees will be confirmed. By contrast, all three of the so-called "moderate" Republicans is likely to look for anti-Roe justices -- McCain and Romney out of pro-life sentiment and Giuliani out of a commitment to judicial restraint. Now, of course, the sad history of Republican appointees means that they may end up with a pro-Roe appointee despite their best efforts, but that's no different from Brownback or Hunter.
Not only do we have the retirement of Stevens and (likely) Ginsburg, we also will probably lose one of Scalia or Thomas, who given weight and race, respectively, are moving into prime male mortality years.
Thus electing a Democrat in 2008 will result in, by 2012, the pro-Roe majority shifting from (as it is now) 5 Justices of whom none is younger than his mid-60s, 2 are in their 70s and one in his 80s to 6 Justices of whom 3 are in their 40s and 3 who are in their early 70s.