Posted on 01/19/2007 11:03:47 PM PST by Dallas59
ST. PETERSBURG, January 15 (RIA Novosti) - Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted through human activities, believed by scientists to trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, are an effect rather than the cause of global warming, a prominent Russian scientist said Monday.
Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the St. Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory, said global warming stems from an increase in the sun's activity. His view contradicts the international scientific consensus that climate change is attributable to the emission of greenhouse gases generated by industrial activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
"Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy - almost throughout the last century - growth in its intensity," Abdusamatov told RIA Novosti in an interview.
"It is no secret that when they go up, temperatures in the world's oceans trigger the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the common view that man's industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect relations."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN panel of thousands of international scientists, widely regarded as an authority on climate change issues, established a consensus many years ago that most of the warming experienced over the last half-century has been attributable to human activities.
However, scientists acknowledge that rises in temperatures can potentially cause massive increases of greenhouse gases due to various natural positive feedback mechanisms, for example the methane released by melting permafrost, ocean algae's reduced capacity to absorb carbon at higher water temperatures, and the carbon released by trees when forests dry up.
Abdusamatov, a doctor of mathematics and physics, is one of a small number of scientists around the world who continue to contest the view of the IPCC, the national science academies of the G8 nations, and other prominent scientific bodies.
He said an examination of ice cores from wells over three kilometers (1.5 miles) deep in Greenland and the Antarctic indicates that the Earth experienced periods of global warming even before the industrial age (which began two hundred years ago).
Climate scientists have used information in ice cores, which contain air samples trapped by snow falling hundreds of thousands of years ago, providing an ancient record of the atmosphere's makeup, to establish that throughout the numerous glacial and interglacial periods on record, temperatures have closely tracked global CO2 concentrations.
The fact that background atmospheric CO2 levels, shown for example by the famous Keeling curve, displaying precise measurements going back to 1958, are now known to be well above concentrations experienced in hundreds of millennia, as displayed by the ice cores, is considered by most of the scientific community as incontrovertible proof of mankind's influence on greenhouse gas concentrations.
However, Abdusamatov even disputed the greenhouse effect, claiming it fails to take into account the effective transmission of heat to the outer layers of atmosphere.
Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since the 19th century. The phenomenon by which gases such as methane and CO2 warm the troposphere by absorbing some of the infra-red heat reflected by the earth's surface has the effect of a global thermostat, sustaining global temperatures within ranges that allow life on the planet to thrive.
But Abdusamatov insisted: "Ascribing ‘greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated. Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."
Abdusamatov claimed that the upper layers of the world's oceans are - much to climatologists' surprise - becoming cooler, which is a clear indication that the Earth has hit its temperature ceiling already, and that solar radiation levels are falling and will eventually lead to a worldwide cold spell.
"Instead of professed global warming, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by 2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060," he said, adding that this period of global freeze will last some 50 years, after which the temperatures will go up again.
"There is no need for the Kyoto Protocol now, and it does not have to come into force until at least a hundred years from now - a global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions," Abdusamatov said.
The 1998 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which sets greenhouse gas emission targets for the period up to 2012, entered into force two years ago following ratification by 141 countries, which together account for over 55% of the world's gas pollutions. However, most environmentalists now consider its targets inadequate to enforce the emissions cuts necessary to curb climate change.
Russia ratified the treaty in November 2004, making it legally binding. But the world's top polluter, the United States, is still reluctant to sign on for fear the treaty's emission commitments will slow down the country's economic growth.
Yes, and pollution in the old Soviet Union was horrendous. Far worse than anything we could even imagine here in the US.
But now that CO2 is considered "pollution," the US is the worse "polluter" simply by virtue of being the most economically developed and therefore using the most energy.
"But the world's top polluter, the United States,"
I wonder if this is supposed to reference the scientist's arguement in a flawed way. Maybe the author is making reference to the large amount of CO2 produced by US industry (Not sure where this is the highest), or the incredibly large release of harmful chemicals by China.
"The world's top polluter is *CHINA*."
What's up with you? That's like denying that Cuba's medical system is the envy of the world!
ROFL
Maybe the communists realize that global warming (which was mostly natural anyways) is about to turn into global cooling (again, a natural process). Even the communists realize they cannot say for years "Global warming is destroying the planet and the only thing that can save the world is communism!" and then turn around and say "Global cooling is destroying the planet and the only thing that can save the world is communism!"
"Climate change" is a useful catch-phrase because nature is not static, unlike what the green witch-doctors preach. And now the green witch-doctors are about to ban scientific inquiry about the environment. Who knows, the "progressives" might even ban the discussion of sunspots and we will be back to where we were 500 years ago.
Looks like he's giving you the evil eye.
"In Russia? Why do I imagine his days are numbered for going against todays driving force of international socialism??"
The Russians might be so put off, their economic plans count on selling as much oil and natural gas as possible....
This guy is DEAD ON THE MONEY!!! I have never seen so much IDIOCY on any other topic!!!
Everyone knows it's cow farts.
I think the reference is to the 300 million cars in the US vs. about 160 million in china. And the US also produces about 60 % of its electricity via coal also.
That's easy.
1. Money. Grants to study global warming amount to billions of dollars.
2. Power. If this hysteria continues, it is obvious that a central Global Warming Commissariat will be needed to tend to all the carbon producers, issuing permits for plant construction and watching over carbon credit transfers. And who is better suited to form and head up such a Commissariat but those sounding the alarum loudest!
Gore for Global Warming Czar?? Man, consider the power that divinity school flunkout would have.
Perceptive.
Thirty or forty years ago it was the "coming ice age". Now "global warming" is debunked as a natural occurring phenomenon. "Climate change" is just as ludicrous a term. However, since global warming is just a matter of plotting temperature over time and place, I suppose climate change, impossible to quantify, is, thus, the perfect victim for whackos.
Climate change is much more encompassing and emotional: hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis (I know, no weather there, but that doesn't matter to whackos), El Nino, floods, drought, landslides, avalanches, forest fires. The permutations are almost infinite.
Notice that the grand victims of environmental elitists have no voice; they do no complaining: trees, owls, environment, ecosystems, pets, water, climate. These "constituents" vote neither yea nor nae.
yitbos
You got it. "Climate change" is virtually meaningless so of course it can be defined to mean anything. Are there many major hurricanes one year? Climate change. Are there few hurricanes the next year? Again, climate change. Is the weather too cold? Climate change. Is the weather too warm? Climate change. Is the weather just right? Climate change. No one knows what climate change is but the cure for climate change is always socialism.
There are several interesting aspects to this story. First, this scientist is not paid to say "global warming"...nor is his research money at threat if he goes in a different direction...nor is he going to be fired. Russian scientists are amongst the most "free-minded" men on the face of the earth. Second...of all the nations in the industrial world...Russia is going to be the last to talk openly about global warming. Their dream of moving Saudi Arabia down to number two and becoming an economic powerhouse in twenty years by use of oil and natural gas...is dependent on no halts because of global warming. Third and most important...the respect in the international community for Russian science...is fairly deep. They breed thinkers...independent logic...and "outside-the-box" concepts. Remember the Palm...with the text recognition software? Palm went to Russia to have that developed but refused to say precisely how it would be used. When delivered...Palm immedately started sales of the Palm Pilot...then the Russian developers said with glee..."if we had known that was the final intent...we'd made it twice as good as what we developed".
They're hedging all their bets. No matter what happens, whether it be the presence or absence of hurricanes, warm winters or blizzards, floods or droughts, advancing or receding glaciers, ... it all falls under the heading "climate change".
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