Rogers: Oil to $100 After ‘Correction’

MoneyNews.com (Newsmax) ^ | January 19, 2007 | Marie Albin

[RightWhale]

It's kind of funny that just yesterday they gave a one-liner on the news on the hour that cities are looking to use the heat of deep rocks to generate electricity.

Geothermal certainly has a lot to recommend it, except cost.

[raygun]

The price of crude oil will rise exponentially as reserves dwindle. Somewhere in that price increase, somebody'll get the bright idea to tap the oil shale because its cheaper, and we have it, and they need it.

Once that happens, the petroleum industry gravey-train and circus is over. Permanently. And oil from shale extraction costs will decrease geometrically as the technology improves.

It'll be a complicated intersection of multiple supply and demand curves, but oil ultimately will stabilize around $80/bbl. The first thing that'll shock the oil market is taking the U.S.A. off-line from the international oil spigot. The price will only go so high before they'll begin oil from shale extraction (regardless of how inefficient). As the U.S.A. depends less and less on foreign oil, there will be no increased pressure for the price of oil to increase (except for foreign demand). However, as foreign demand increases foreign oil prices, the U.S.A. will be ramping up its oil from shale extraction, and increasing the efficiency of the process.

Ultimately, the U.S.A. could be entirely self-sufficient on oil from shale alone. I'll go out on a limb here and say that could happen by 2100. At that time oil will cost about $80/bbl no matter where its obtained. If over the subsequent 25 years, global demand increased 30% and OPEC/non-OPEC supply decreased 50%, the U.S.A. has sufficient quantities of presently known shale-oil reserves to ensure that the price of oil would remain at about $80. AND the oil companies would STILL be making a profit in 2125

[RightWhale]

The price of crude oil will rise exponentially as reserves dwindle.

There would be a limit. Oil can never get much more expensive than at the point where oil extraction from the ground costs roughly the same as oil from process. Right now extracted oil costs about $10-20 and process oil is about $30-40. There is a ways to go, and it won't be abrupt. The immediate danger is flat-out war in the ME that would bring an abrupt change, and long-lasting if not permanent.

[thackney]

Somewhere in that price increase, somebody'll get the bright idea to tap the oil shale

We are past that point.

Seebach: Shell's ingenious approach to oil shale is pretty slick

BLM OKs oil project leases 3 companies could begin trials of shale ventures next year

The Cautious U.S. Boom in Oil Shale

[MEGoody]

Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. "It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen."

Oh geez. Does this guy get paid for this kind of nonsense? If so, I want in. What an easy way to make a living.