The climate record kept in ice and in sediment reveals that since the invention of agriculture some 8000 yr ago, climate has remained remarkably stable. By contrast, during the preceding 100,000 yr, climate underwent frequent, very large, and often extremely abrupt shifts. Furthermore, these shifts occurred in lockstep across the globe. They seem to be telling us that Earth's climate system has several distinct and quite different modes of operation and that it can jump from one of these modes to another in a matter of a decade or two. So far, we know of only one element of the climate system which has multiple modes of operation: the oceans' thermohaline circulation. Numerous model simulations reveal that this circulation is quite sensitive to the freshwater budget in the high-latitude regions where deep waters form. Perhaps the mode shifts revealed in the climate record were initiated in the sea. This discovery complicates predictions of the consequences of the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If the major climate changes of glacial time came as the result of mode shifts, can we be certain that the warming will proceed smoothly? Or is it possible that about 100 years from now, when our descendants struggle to feed the 15 or so billion Earth inhabitants, climate will jump to a less hospitable state. It is difficult to comprehend the misery that would follow on the heels of such an event!
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/BroeckerWS1997.pdf
Gore gets cheated out of his prize again.
The total climate variables are greater in number and greater in degree of the cyclical and potential variability of their values, than we can yet identify sufficiently or comprehend all the mechanisims for. Global climate change predictions are useless. It is only the arrogance of people who think they have the knowledge and comprehension of God who believe otherwise.
I am thoroughly confused now.
I have never heard of these scientists, which means that they are most likely true scientists without a political agenda or a bottomless hunger for grants.
Having them as winners is politically incorrect.
I have not, nor am I likely to see their names attached to the 'global warming' scam that has hairdresser and actor "scientists" mesmerized...
From your source:
My lifetime study of Earth's climate system has humbled me. I'm convinced that we have greatly underestimated the complexity of this system. The importance of obscure phenomena, ranging from those that control the size of raindrops to those that control the amount of water pouring into the deep sea from the shelves of the Antarctic continent, makes reliable modeling very difficult, if not impossible.
http://www.carleton.ca/~tpatters/teaching/climatechange/broecker/broecker.html (11 of 13) [02/12/2003 10:05:30]
Wallace S. Broecker, "Will Our Ride into the Greenhouse Future be a Smooth One?" GSA Today 5/97
No one of any repute projects such a population level. Most agree that the population will reach around 9 billion and then start declining slightly.